Will Russian peacekeepers leave Karabakh in 2025?

The Turkish President's loud statement at the NATO summit in Vilnius that Russian peacekeepers would leave Karabakh in 2025 did not provoke a response from Moscow. This can be considered a sensation, because Erdogan actually indicated to Moscow what it was obliged to do, although no one gave such powers to the Turkish president, but Moscow simply lost and swallowed.

In fact, it's not that simple. Erdogan is quite an experienced politician and would not climb into trouble out of the blue. There is no doubt that this statement was agreed with Baku.

Erdogan understood that such a statement in the presence of NATO leaders strengthens his position and will cause the support of the West.

In fact, Erdogan openly exerts pressure on Moscow, demanding to consider the position of Ankara (Baku) and hints that they are dissatisfied with the peacekeepers and will not stand on ceremony with them. To prevent this from happening, Moscow must recognize that Azerbaijan and Turkey have already decided and prepare for the fact that in 2025 the status and powers of peacekeepers will at least be minimized. If Moscow does not want this, it must make significant concessions.

If this was the goal of Erdogan (Aliyev), then the question is natural: What exactly should Moscow concede?

As you know, Azerbaijan has not signed the mandate of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh. This means that the armed Forces of another country are located on the territory of Azerbaijan without any legal justification. Since 2020, since the introduction of the Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh, the actions of peacekeepers are regulated on the basis of agreements of the parties, that is, on a gentleman's basis.

The Russians are trying to interpret these agreements in their own way, which gives Baku a reason to accuse them of not fulfilling or exceeding their powers.

This scheme is beneficial to Baku, and it will use this situation to the maximum. Six months before the end of the mission of Russian peacekeepers, Baku will demand their withdrawal, citing a lot of arguments, including numerous facts of violations. However, Baku does not benefit from the complete withdrawal of peacekeepers until the issue with the Karabakh Armenians has been resolved, and there are a number of serious reasons for this. First of all, this is the danger of internationalization of the peacekeeping mission, when the United States and other Western countries will demand the deployment of their forces in the region to maintain peace and ensure the security of Armenians. This process will be accompanied by very strong pressure on Baku, which the "offended" Moscow will cease to support.

Forceful pressure on the Armenians of Karabakh in such a situation will cause decisive actions by the West, including political and economic sanctions, which will seriously weaken Baku's position on the negotiating platforms. Plus, Moscow will abandon neutrality and become another major power criticizing Azerbaijan.

Ilham Aliyev is an emotional politician and his harsh statements often confuse and frighten foreign partners, but he is careful enough to allow such a development of events.

Most likely, on the eve or immediately after the announcement of the need to withdraw the Russian peacekeepers from Karabakh, Moscow will be asked to sign a new document regulating the status of peacekeepers. The powers and rights of the Russian peacekeepers will be severely limited, they will have to coordinate most issues with Baku and their main task will be to maintain law and order in Armenian settlements.

In addition, they will be obliged to participate and help in the disarmament of the Armed Forces of Karabakh, inform the Azerbaijani authorities about all separatist manifestations and sharply limit their humanitarian missions.

Finally, the term of the Russian peacekeepers’ stay in Karabakh will be limited to one year with the right to extend if Baku considers that the conditions of the peacekeepers' stay are not violated by them.

At the same time, all this will be possible only if Azerbaijan does not conduct a military operation to disarm illegal armed formations in Karabakh by 2025.

Such an operation could lead to a mass exodus of Armenians and arrests of separatist leaders. The remaining civilians who are ready to accept Azerbaijani citizenship will be protected by the RMK.

Such a scenario will suit both Baku and Moscow, and it is possible that these plans are discussed by the parties behind closed doors.

As for Yerevan's possible discontent and attempts to counteract the adoption of the new mandate of peacekeepers, the desire of the Armenian side will be ignored, and Baku and Moscow will conclude a bilateral document.

The possible and expected military operation of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces in Karabakh will be discussed in the following article.