The world between Azerbaijan and Armenia is in a geopolitical trap, - a conversation with Vadim Dubnov

Passions surrounding the Zangezur Corridor continue unabated. Iran keeps threatening everyone and everything, but it’s unclear what it wants. As they say in Armenia, Baku is presenting new conditions, while Yerevan declares its readiness to sign a peace treaty. The Americans and the French are calling for the signing of a peace agreement.

What could be the consequences of all this? On these and other questions, Vadim Dubnov, a Caucasus expert and commentator for Radio "Svoboda," responds on the air of the program "Complex Question."

According to Dubnov, Iran, in the context of the Zangezur Corridor, simply wants to maintain or conserve its positions in case of further discussions on this topic, which is strategic and global and will be developed by more than one cabinet or generation of politicians. Therefore, there is talk of "red lines," and threats are issued that Iran will not tolerate their violation. However, it is not currently in a position to genuinely threaten anyone. Moreover, all of Iran’s major, more serious interests are primarily focused in other directions—such as the Middle Eastern crisis, relations with the West, and relations with Russia.

The Azerbaijan-Armenia direction is currently peripheral for Iran. This explains its sharp reaction to the Russian statement (the remark by the Russian Foreign Minister S. Lavrov about Armenia sabotaging the agreements on communications through the Western Zangezur – editor’s note). This is, of course, an imitation and a signal to Russia because Russia is very afraid of losing Iran in this situation. Hence Russia's respectful attitude towards Iran, which was not present before. This is one side of the issue.

The other side of the issue is that Moscow is perhaps the only player that sees the Zangezur Corridor with very clear specifics for itself. It wanted to launch these communications not sometime in the future, not as part of the "Middle Corridor," but as a specific route that passes through Armenia and which it controls. This was important for it, especially under the conditions it has placed itself in. Therefore, Moscow is simultaneously an active player and an actively waiting player in this field. Everything else is some sort of façade for solving bilateral problems. For Azerbaijan and Armenia, this is a matter of the negotiation process for peace, security guarantees, etc.

Regarding the peace treaty project, the expert said that in its current form, this document does not satisfy either Baku or Yerevan. For Azerbaijan, it should be a treaty where the victor dictates the terms to the defeated. For Armenia, it is a set of guarantees to simplify the internal political situation and reduce the risk of a new war. There is no compromise formula that could combine these two approaches.

"For Azerbaijan, it is a way not to sign this treaty. And Armenia's exotic proposal to sign 80% of the agreement without the remaining 20% cannot be taken seriously," the expert believes.