Almaty meeting, actions in Yerevan and Tbilisi...

On May 10-11, the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Jeyhun Bayramov and Ararat Mirzoyan, convened in Almaty for critical talks aimed at advancing peace and interstate relations between their countries. This meeting marked a continuation of efforts to address long-standing issues stemming from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the broader goal of stabilizing relations in the region.

According to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, the ministers acknowledged progress in the border delimitation process and welcomed the agreements reached thus far. The discussions, which included both ministers and their delegations, focused on drafting an agreement to establish peace and formalize interstate relations. They agreed to maintain dialogue on unresolved issues, indicating a cautious optimism about potential breakthroughs.

Meanwhile, significant political activities have been unfolding in Armenia and Georgia, reflecting internal tensions and external pressures.

In Armenia, the "Tavush for the Motherland" protest movement has gained momentum since early May. On May 10, Armenian opposition leaders initiated a series of peaceful disobedience actions across the country. Bagrat Galstanyan, a prominent figure in the movement, clarified that he had not discussed candidacies for prime minister with former President Robert Kocharian. When queried about former Ombudsman Arman Tatoyan’s potential candidacy, Archbishop Galstanyan responded ambiguously, saying, "Perhaps."

Simultaneously, Georgia witnessed massive protests against the controversial "foreign agents" law proposed by the government. Tens of thousands of demonstrators flooded the streets of Tbilisi on May 12-13, opposing legislation they argue is reminiscent of restrictive Russian policies. Protesters remained near the Georgian Parliament overnight, preparing for the legal committee's final reading of the bill scheduled for May 14. The European Union and the United States have cautioned that adopting this law would distance Georgia from potential EU and NATO memberships.

Political commentator Rauf Mirkadyrov, speaking on the program "Difficult Question," emphasized that the location of diplomatic negotiations often influences their outcomes, except when held in politically charged cities like Brussels, Moscow, or Washington. He noted that regardless of where successful negotiations occur, a guarantor will be necessary to ensure the implementation of any agreements—a role currently subject to geopolitical contestation.

Mirkadyrov highlighted a paradox in regional politics: Armenia, despite Western pressures to recognize Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, blames Russia for its predicaments, while Azerbaijan, often critical of Russian actions, blames the West. He argued that Russia has strategically fueled the conflict to maintain its influence, complicating any peace efforts.

Regarding the political turmoil in Armenia, Mirkadyrov predicted attempts to oust Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan due to his policies perceived as unfavorable to Moscow. He asserted that Russia is likely to back opposition efforts to prevent a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan, as continued conflict serves its interests.

In Georgia, Mirkadyrov pointed out that Russia openly supports the Georgian government’s stance, which hampers the country’s EU aspirations. Moscow’s backing of the ruling "Georgian Dream" party aligns with its goal to obstruct the Middle Corridor project, a significant infrastructure initiative aimed at enhancing connectivity between Europe and Asia through the South Caucasus.