Azerbaijan facing a choice? What do the actors demand?

Bakı/22.11.23/Turan: In  the "Difficult Question" program, political commentator Zardusht Alizadeh delved into the complexities surrounding the ongoing peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Against the backdrop of statements from the European Union and the United States, as well as Azerbaijan's reactions and articles from pro-government media, Alizadeh explored the challenges hindering progress in the negotiations.

Alizadeh highlighted a crucial factor influencing the peace talks—the desire of each side to have its patron present at the negotiating table. He observed that Armenia perceives Western powers, specifically France and the United States, as occupying more advantageous positions and hopes to leverage their influence to force Azerbaijan into accepting its conditions. On the other hand, Azerbaijan is wary of external intermediaries and, while acknowledging Russia's regional influence, remains hesitant about Western involvement.

The political commentator proposed Tbilisi as a potentially optimal location for negotiations, emphasizing that talks could occur on the Azerbaijan-Armenia border or within either country. However, he noted that Armenia has been reluctant to negotiate in Tbilisi, with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan preferring not to face President Ilham Aliyev alone at the table.

Alizadeh contended that there are no longer fundamental issues preventing a resolution. He asserted that the Karabakh issue has been officially resolved, with Azerbaijan expressing a positive attitude towards the return of Karabakh Armenians, signaling a potential shift away from Russian dependence for Armenia. While issues of communications, borders, and exclaves remain, Alizadeh expressed confidence that these matters could be resolved through relevant commissions.

The analyst suggested that Pashinyan's current political maneuvers, positioning himself as a pro-Western politician, may be aimed at laying the foundation for future elections rather than addressing substantive issues. He questioned the meaningfulness of this approach and suggested that such posturing might not contribute significantly to the ongoing peace process.

Alizadeh concluded by stating that if Armenia declines the proposed meeting on the state border with Azerbaijan, it would signify the extent of Western influence on Armenia's decision-making, potentially indicating a prioritization of external interests over those of the Armenian people.