Events that caused an earthquake effect on the country's political agenda; Presidential elections, the release of military personnel

Baku/09.12.23/Turan: Even the earthquake that occurred on December 7 in Baku and the surrounding areas did not create such a shock effect as the steps taken that day in the name of the country. On this day, successive messages caused an earthquake effect on the country's political agenda. These are, firstly, the decree signed by the head of the country on holding early presidential elections scheduled for February 7 next year, secondly, the agreement reached between the two states without any mediator on the release of Azerbaijani and Armenian servicemen, and finally, the statement of the Armenian side on the possibility of signing peace within 5-10 days between two countries. All this happens the day after the meeting within the framework of the visit to the region of US Assistant Secretary of State James O'Brien with President Ilham Aliyev.

Anar Mammadli, head of the  Elections Monitoring and Democracy Studies Center, commented on these events in the program "A difficult question".

The human rights defender is convinced that there was no need to postpone the elections. Because there must be serious political reasons for this. When, for example, a political crisis arises, it becomes necessary for the government to receive a vote of confidence, when there is a difference of opinion in the coalition government.

"But, as we can see, the government in Azerbaijan is monolithic, and society does not protest against it. So there is no reason to postpone the elections. But there is an intention to hold uncompetitive elections in the current geopolitical situation, which are beyond the attention of the international community," Mammadli is sure.

He believes that the early parliamentary elections should be postponed to February 7, 2024, since the powers of the current convocation of the Milli Mejlis expire in February 2025.

Now, according to him, starting from December 2024 to April 2025, there will be an election period in the country, although it is wrong to "load" citizens with elections every six months. Since this is tedious and reduces electoral activity, it requires a lot of physical and financial costs.

According to Mammadli, the intention of the authorities to take advantage of the favorable geopolitical situation and the dividends of victory over Armenia can be traced here. Moreover, for them, holding presidential elections is less risky from a technical and political point of view, whereas parliamentary elections carry certain political risks - this means including at least 600 people in the struggle in 125 electoral districts, which is associated with a lot of speeches, actions, diverse approaches, voter discontent, etc.. 

The human rights defender is convinced that Azerbaijan is not ready to hold presidential elections. "There are no democratic freedoms in the country and the indicator of this is the presence of 254 political prisoners," he explains.

Mammadli is also skeptical about the rumors about the referendum, since today the authorities do not see the need for this.

The expert also noted that political parties do not seek to participate in elections, and the country's population is indifferent to them. Because there is no trust in elections, there is no competition.

According to Mammadli, there is a connection between O'Brien's visit to Baku and the agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia on the release of servicemen, as well as progress towards signing a peace agreement. He also believes that the authorities expect against the background of recent events it will be possible to hold early presidential elections "without noise and dust".