How Will Iran Respond to the Assassination of Sheikh Nasrallah?

The assassination of the "Hezbollah" leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has caused a profound shock in the region, particularly in Iran. Iranian authorities have stated that they will respond swiftly and firmly.

The incident has sparked widespread condemnation in Iran and led to heightened security measures, raising concerns about a potential escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel. The elimination of such a key figure as Hassan Nasrallah has prompted discussions in Iran about the country's foreign policy direction and its involvement in regional conflicts.

This topic was discussed by political commentator Sadreddin Soltan on the program "Complex Issue." According to him, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian unofficially and indirectly acknowledged the death of Hassan Nasrallah and indirectly blamed Israel for it. They also declared that Hezbollah's cause would continue. However, in their statements, they refrained from directly mentioning Nasrallah's death and did not confirm the report, limiting themselves to general remarks.

Shortly afterward, Pezeshkian stated that "the crimes of the Zionist regime (...) will not go unanswered." The Chief of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Mohammad Bagheri, along with other high-ranking military officials, promised a devastating response.

The expert reminded that Iran’s response to the elimination of Ismail Haniyeh and Qasem Soleimani was disproportionately weak, contrary to expectations. Iran did not bomb U.S. bases in Iraq or Syria, nor did it carry out any actions targeting U.S. embassies. Instead, it was limited to the killing of three U.S. servicemen in Jordan, later denying any involvement.

In response to the Israeli Air Force strike on April 1, 2024, which destroyed the building of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing 16 people, including senior commander of the IRGC Quds Force, Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and seven other IRGC officers, Iran only launched a few rockets that caused no significant damage to Israel.

Sadreddin Soltan noted that after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Tehran was warned that if any military action was taken against Israel, there would be strikes on Iran’s economic infrastructure and military facilities.

"For Iran, whose economy is already in a crisis situation, this would be catastrophic—the collapse of the state," the political analyst emphasized, adding that he strongly doubts Iran will dare to respond to the assassination of the "Hezbollah" leader.