Is a provocation possible on the border with Azerbaijan?

Media outlets reported on February 3 that a Czech national was detained by Azerbaijani authorities while attempting to cross the provisional border from Armenia to Azerbaijan. The authorities notified the Czech Consulate in Baku. An investigation is ongoing to establish the individual's identity. However, neither official institutions in Azerbaijan nor in Prague have issued statements regarding the incident.

In an analytical program called "Hafta" ("Week") on Azerbaijani State Television (AzTV), it was claimed that France had devised a "blitzkrieg" plan against Azerbaijan. The program outlined the alleged direction of the attack, suggesting it would originate from the Jermuk area. Presenter Rovshan Mammadov mentioned European agents attempting to cross Azerbaijani borders, citing an incident involving a French National Gendarmerie Department general conducting surveillance from Armenian territory.

On February 2, Brigadier General William De Meyer of the French National Gendarmerie visited the location of the EU civil mission in Armenia to assess border conditions.

Meanwhile, on the same day, the U.S. Embassy in Armenia advised its citizens against visiting the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and prohibited its employees from visiting certain border-region cities, citing potential road closures without prior notice.

Security expert Ilham Ismail, speaking on the "Difficult Question" program, opined that while the Czech Republic may lack specific interests in Azerbaijan, foreign nationals could be utilized as spies by other states, a tactic known as false flag activity. Ismail doubted the detained individual's espionage ties due to the amateurish border crossing.

However, Ismail suggested Armenian provocation in allowing the breach, positing it as potential fodder for anti-Azerbaijani propaganda. He speculated that Armenia's motive could be to portray Azerbaijan negatively by publicizing the incident as the arrest of a Czech national, an EU member state citizen, further complicating regional tensions.