On the Brink of Conflict: What Does the World Want from Azerbaijan?

In a world teetering on the edge of conflict, Azerbaijan finds itself in a precarious position. The recent assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh has heightened tensions in the Middle East, prompting Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry to urge its citizens to avoid Lebanon, Palestine, and Israel, and those already there to leave promptly. This move signals the potential expansion of warfare in the region.

On August 5, Russia's Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu visited Iran, meeting with President Masoud Pezeshkian and Brigadier General Mohammad Bagheri. Shoigu's subsequent visit to Azerbaijan underscores the intricate geopolitical chess game being played out, as regional powers maneuver for influence.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran's leadership is counting on Russian support during these tumultuous times, aiming to deepen ties with Moscow. Shoigu affirmed Russia's willingness to collaborate with Iran, further entangling the regional dynamics.

During his visit to Azerbaijan on August 6, Shoigu discussed with President Ilham Aliyev the Western attempts to intervene in the South Caucasus's security framework. "A wide range of issues was discussed, primarily the security in the South Caucasus, the peace agreement with Armenia—its 10th revision submitted to Yerevan—and, of course, the very active attempts by the West to interfere in this process," Shoigu told reporters in Baku.

Shoigu's visit, following Tehran, sends a clear message: the West should not be allowed a foothold in the South Caucasus. Political commentator Rauf Mirkadirov, speaking on the program "Complex Questions," highlighted the region's state of perpetual tension. The Middle East is currently in a constant state of war anticipation, a dangerous situation as such expectations often lead to actions like massive arms purchases and troop relocations, escalating the likelihood of military conflict.

A major war in the Middle East implies Iran's involvement, as no Arab nation is eager to engage in warfare. The exceptions might include Syria, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, Shia groups in Iraq (supporters of Muqtada al-Sadr), and Hezbollah. However, for Iran, a large-scale war would mean facing a Western coalition, potentially including the U.S., the U.K., Germany, and possibly France, which has a slightly different stance on the Palestinian issue. For the Iranian regime, such a scenario would be tantamount to suicide.

Azerbaijan, strategically positioned and politically cautious, must navigate these turbulent waters carefully, balancing its relationships with neighboring powers and avoiding being drawn into the vortex of conflict that threatens to engulf the region.