Pre-election Azerbaijan. Relations with the West

As Azerbaijan gears up for early presidential elections on February 7, an evident frostiness pervades its relations with the West, particularly with France and the European Union. Tensions escalated as the French Senate passed a resolution urging sanctions against Azerbaijan, prompting a swift response from Azerbaijan's Milli Majlis, which appealed to the government to take action. The recent espionage episode involving France further compounds the strained diplomatic atmosphere.

The implications of this strained relationship are underscored by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's messages to EU countries, as revealed in interviews with local TV channels. Political commentator Rauf Mirkadirov sheds light on these developments in the "Difficult Question" program.

According to Mirkadirov, the cooling of relations can be attributed to Azerbaijan's rejection of peace talks on Western platforms, often accompanied by various pretexts or no pretext at all. Another factor contributing to the rift is the alarming crackdown on journalists within Azerbaijan, a move seen as an attempt to eliminate any semblance of political alternative in the upcoming elections, both in reality and within public consciousness.

Moreover, Mirkadirov posits that the intensified pursuit of journalists, the arrest of a French "spy," and the declaration of persona non grata for two French diplomats serve the purpose of deliberately provoking a cooling of relations with the West. This, he suggests, aligns with Azerbaijan's obligations to Russia, requiring a self-imposed detachment from Western alliances at this juncture. To execute this, Azerbaijan needed a pretext, hence the narrative emphasizing the West's supposed Armenian-centric bias and anti-Azerbaijani activities.

Mirkadirov contends that Azerbaijan sought to portray France's pro-Armenian stance as rooted in Islamophobia, attempting to mobilize the Islamic factor to forge a united front among the country's Muslim population. As pre-election dynamics unfold, the complex interplay between geopolitical commitments and diplomatic maneuvering continues to shape Azerbaijan's relations with the West.