The Incident That Killed the President of Iran: An Accident or Diversion?

The helicopter crash on May 19 that killed Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdullahiyan has become a major point of discussion on the global political stage. As investigators and analysts scramble for answers, the central question remains: Was it a tragic accident or a calculated diversion?

Mehsa Mehdili, a political scientist originally from Iranian Azerbaijan and now residing in Turkey, explored this question on her program "Difficult Question." Mehdili's analysis delves into the complexities of Iran's political landscape and the potential causes behind the crash.

According to Mehdili, Iran's political system is structured in such a way that the president serves primarily as an executor of the directives of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. As such, the regime itself is unlikely to undergo significant changes beyond the replacement of Raisi with another figurehead.

"The regime will not undergo any special changes, except that someone else will take over the presidency instead of Ibrahim Raisi," Mehdili stated.

Mehdili does not dismiss the possibility that the crash was more than just an accident caused by adverse weather conditions. She raises a critical question about the decision to transport Raisi by helicopter to Tabriz, which is less than 200 kilometers from Khudaferin.

"Why did they decide to take Raisi to Tabriz, which is less than two hundred kilometers from Khudaferin, not by car, but by helicopter? There is no reasonable explanation for this," Mehdili pondered.

She suggests that the crash could have been the result of internal political struggles, particularly given the advanced age of Supreme Leader Khamenei. Raisi was seen as a potential successor, but factions within Khamenei's circle favor his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the next Supreme Leader.

"Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei, will become the main candidate to succeed his father after the death of President Ibrahim Raisi in a plane crash," Mehdili noted.

Contrary to some popular beliefs, Mehdili argues that Raisi was not a genuine contender for the role of Supreme Leader, pointing to his unpopularity due to his harsh tenure as Iran's prosecutor general.

"The IRGC's promise to avenge Raisi's death is an attempt to shift responsibility for their mistakes to external forces," Mehdili said.

Mehdili predicts that the IRGC will leverage the incident to consolidate more power within Iran, under the guise of defending against external threats.

As the investigation continues, the true nature of the helicopter crash remains uncertain. Whether a tragic accident or a sinister act of sabotage, the incident has undeniably intensified the political turmoil within Iran and raised critical questions about the future leadership of the Islamic Republic.