The President's statements on land borders, the Ukrainian war, and Azerbaijani-Armenian relations...

During the recent "COP29 and a Green Vision for Azerbaijan" forum at ADA University, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev elaborated on multiple significant issues, from the persistent closure of Azerbaijan’s land borders to the complex geopolitics involving Russia, Ukraine, and regional stability. His insights provide a window into the intricate balance Azerbaijan seeks to maintain in its foreign and domestic policies.

President Aliyev's justification for keeping the land borders closed revolves primarily around national security—a concern that is becoming increasingly prevalent in global politics. However, the specifics of these security concerns are multifaceted, touching upon potential threats from radical groups, the unwanted influx of refugees, and the avoidance of military obligations from neighboring countries. The president's viewpoint aligns with political commentator Ilham Ismail, who in the program "Difficult Question" notes  that while the immediate threat might not be from Georgia directly, the open borders could potentially allow threats from third countries, including the risk of radicalization and espionage from places like Iran and Dagestan.

Amidst the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Aliyev's statements underscore Azerbaijan's careful navigation of its foreign relations. By providing humanitarian but not military support to Ukraine, Azerbaijan maintains a stance that respects Ukraine's sovereignty while avoiding exacerbation of tensions with Russia. This approach is particularly delicate given the existing partnership and cooperation between Azerbaijan and Russia, highlighted by the recent discussions between Aliyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The misinformation campaigns cited by Ismail, particularly claims by Armenian media about Azerbaijan supplying arms to Ukraine, illustrate the challenges Azerbaijan faces in maintaining its neutrality and managing its image both regionally and internationally.

President Aliyev’s comments about Russia's enduring presence and influence in the Caucasus underline a recognition of geopolitical realities. His emphasis on mutual respect and sovereignty in dealings with Russia reflects an acknowledgment of the nuanced power dynamics at play. Azerbaijan's strategic cooperation with Russia, particularly in economic and humanitarian fields, alongside the substantial presence of Russian schools in Azerbaijan, signifies deep-rooted ties that influence Azerbaijan's policy decisions.

A potentially transformative development in regional diplomacy is the warming ties between Azerbaijan and Armenia, as evidenced by Armenia's recent territorial concessions and discussions on energy cooperation. Aliyev’s mention of Armenia as a potential recipient of Azerbaijani gas not only suggests an easing of longstanding tensions but also indicates Armenia's search for alternatives to Russian energy, thereby subtly shifting the power dynamics within the region.

Summing up, the expert notes that President Aliyev's statements at the CAP29 forum reveal a strategic position aimed at navigating the complex web of regional and international politics. By keeping the land borders closed, Azerbaijan aims to shield itself from multiple external threats while internally securing its regime. Moreover, Aliyev's diplomatic approach—balancing a strong partnership with Russia against a supportive, albeit non-military, relationship with Ukraine—demonstrates Azerbaijan's broader strategy to position itself as a sovereign yet cooperative regional power amidst ongoing global and regional challenges.