What are the real reasons and goals for postponing the parliamentary elections to an earlier date?

Azerbaijan's decision to potentially move its parliamentary elections from the scheduled November date has sparked discussions about the underlying motives and goals behind this shift. The Chairman of the Central Election Commission (CEC), Mazakhir Panakhov, cited the clash with the COP29 climate conference, set for the same month, as a reason for considering an earlier election date.

Historically, Azerbaijan has often resorted to holding elections outside their regular cycles. For instance, the 2020 parliamentary elections were delayed by six months, a move explained by the government as necessary to "accelerate reforms." Similarly, the early presidential elections in February this year were justified by the restoration of sovereignty over all national territories, marking a historic milestone that the government felt should coincide with the presidential vote.

Mirali Huseynov, chairman of the public association "Education for Democracy," in the program "A difficult question" suggests that the scheduling conflict with COP29 might not fully explain the government's eagerness for rescheduling. He highlighted a pattern of postponed election dates since 2016, which he believes is set to continue. According to Huseynov, holding elections earlier than expected can strategically surprise both voters and parliamentary candidates, likely pointing to a July or August date for the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Additionally, Huseynov raised concerns about the feasibility of conducting three elections—presidential, municipal, and parliamentary—within a single calendar year, along with a potential constitutional referendum. The logistical and technical challenges of such a condensed election schedule are significant, albeit manageable given the government's precedent for early elections.

There are also speculations about broader constitutional changes, including the expansion of municipal rights and the abolition of Executive Authorities. These amendments, considered against the backdrop of complex global geopolitical dynamics, carry various risks and are likely prompting a cautious approach, potentially deferring the referendum to the following year.

These pre-election maneuvers in Azerbaijan indicate a complex interaction of strategic, logistical and political considerations that go beyond simple strategy planning, reflecting a deeper rethinking of the situation in the country's leadership and its reaction to both domestic and international pressure.

“Demokratiyanı Öyrənmə” İctimai Birliyinin sədri Mirəli Hüseynov Kamran Mahmudovun təqdimatında yayımlanan “Çətin sual” verilişində danışır.