What prevents Baku and Yerevan from signing a peace treaty? - a talk with Thomas de Waal

British political analyst Thomas de Waal, in an interview with the program "Difficult Question," commented on the challenges in the negotiation process surrounding the peace agreement and touched upon Azerbaijan's demand for the removal of Armenia's territorial claims against Azerbaijan from its constitution.

According to him, the issue of the constitution arose approximately six months ago. He believes it is very difficult for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to make rapid changes. “It’s a difficult process that requires time. Making such changes under pressure from Azerbaijan within a few months seems unrealistic to me. That’s why the process has stalled,” de Waal stated.

He suggested that the peace process might gain new momentum during COP29, which is to be held in Baku soon, as many prominent international leaders will be present. By that time, it will also become clear who the next U.S. president will be. However, until then, there does not appear to be a resolution to this very serious issue concerning the Armenian constitution.

Commenting on the view expressed by some Western analysts that Baku is refraining from signing the peace agreement under pressure from Moscow—aiming to constantly create problems for Pashinyan and ensure that the agreement is not concluded without its participation—de Waal noted that one can only speculate on what Aliyev and Putin might have agreed on during their meeting in Baku in August, or whether they agreed on anything at all. But in his opinion, the overall picture is as follows: Moscow wants Armenia to remain isolated, its borders (with Azerbaijan and Turkey) closed, for Russia to maintain its military presence in Armenia, and for Armenia to remain more or less loyal. The question is, what does Azerbaijan want—does it prefer a more pro-Western Armenia or not?

“Clearly, Moscow is interested in a settlement between Azerbaijan and Armenia that would keep Armenia within the sphere of Russian influence,” de Waal asserted.