What to expect from the EU-US-Armenia meeting in Brussels? - a talk with Caucasus expert Vadim Dubnov in "Çətin sual"

Amidst rising tensions and diplomatic intricacies, a trilateral meeting convened today in Brussels between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The rendezvous, aimed at addressing regional dynamics and fostering dialogue, has been scrutinized by analysts for its potential outcomes and underlying geopolitical implications.

Radio Liberty columnist and Central Asia expert Vadim Dubnov, speaking on the Difficult Question program, dissected the essence of the Brussels summit, casting doubt on the stated agenda attributed by Baku, Moscow, and Yerevan. "The very fact of this meeting obliges Yerevan to frame it in a serious and optimistic context," Dubnov remarked, hinting at the strategic maneuvering amidst differing regional interests.

Dubnov elaborated on the delicate dance between Yerevan, Baku, and Moscow, highlighting Yerevan's attempts to leverage Western engagement to counterbalance Moscow's influence. With Moscow's diminishing involvement in the dialogue process, Yerevan's pursuit of Western partnerships has irked Baku, amplifying tensions within the trilateral dynamic.

The expert underscored the challenge faced by Yerevan in engaging Baku directly, especially when Moscow occasionally aligns with Baku's stance. This necessitates Yerevan's reliance on Western support to navigate contentious issues, much to Baku's chagrin. "Baku's negative attitude towards this meeting stems from its frustration with Yerevan's efforts to involve the West, albeit to a limited extent," Dubnov asserted.

Regarding the meeting's substance, Dubnov remained pragmatic, tempering expectations for breakthroughs or sensational outcomes unless the parties opt to elevate its significance. He predicted a sobering reality for Yerevan, suggesting that the discussions might entail uncomfortable revelations.

As the curtains draw on the Brussels rendezvous, the geopolitical chessboard continues to evolve, with each move carrying implications for regional stability and diplomatic relations. The outcome of this trilateral dialogue remains uncertain, leaving observers to ponder the lasting impact on the intricate tapestry of Eurasian geopolitics.