Will Russia Acknowledge the AZAL Plane Shooting?

Will everything be blamed on the Chechens?

Following the crash of an AZAL airliner in Kazakhstan, numerous questions have arisen regarding the perpetrators, their motives, and potential consequences for Russia. Did the plane crash due to damage caused by being shot at over Grozny? Why are Russian media floating explanations such as a collision with a flock of birds, an oxygen tank explosion onboard, or the pilot’s decision to fly to Aktau on his own initiative?

According to Dubnov, there is no plausible version of events that excludes a scenario other than an explosion occurring behind the plane’s fuselage, leading to partial depressurization and loss of control. If the official version disregards any external force, this would be deeply regrettable and would suggest a political agreement at the highest levels. However, recent developments hint that such an agreement is unlikely or could somehow be mitigated.

Commenting on Russian media publications, Dubnov noted that they are tightly controlled and operate according to directives issued by the presidential administration.

He also pointed out that Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov, during a briefing in Moscow, stated it would be incorrect to hypothesize before the investigation's conclusions and urged everyone to wait for the investigation to end. Nevertheless, this did not stop Rosaviatsiya from suggesting the plane collided with birds.

“Moscow is in a state of confusion because no unified response to this catastrophe has been formulated,” Dubnov explained.

The Russian political analyst did not miss the opportunity to place blame on the head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov.

“We have to call things by their proper names. I have the impression that if this had not happened in the skies over Grozny, not over Chechnya—where a well-known figure in Russian history holds sway—but in some other region of Russia, the situation would have been resolved somewhat… more easily. Here, the Ramzan Kadyrov factor plays a completely dominant role. Kadyrov cannot afford to allow responsibility—say, at a lower level—to be attributed to Chechen air traffic controllers, or even to those higher up who were involved in flights and ensuring the safety of the airspace when drones were being hunted,” he said.

According to him, the Kremlin treats Kadyrov very differently than, for example, the governor of Vologda Oblast.
“Kadyrov is effectively one of the country's leaders,” the political analyst lamented.