Will the protests in Yerevan lead to a change of power in Armenia? - a talk with Tigran Khzmalyan in "Çətin sual"

In recent weeks, Armenia has witnessed a wave of protests sparked by the contentious demarcation and delimitation process on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border. The Chairman of the European Party of Armenia, Tigran Khzmalyan, highlighted these issues during a segment of the program "A Difficult Question," attributing the unrest to widespread discontent with the current authorities.

Khzmalyan underscored that the peak of protest activity saw between 30,000 to 35,000 participants, representing approximately 1% of the country's population. The demonstrators, who demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, were supported by all three former presidents of Armenia and their respective parties. This coalition included Levon Ter-Petrosyan's Armenian National Congress, Serzh Sargsyan's Republican Party of Armenia, and Robert Kocharian's bloc, composed of Dashnaktsutyun and Reborn Armenia.

Interestingly, due to the lack of a unified leader from within these political factions, the protests saw a cleric, Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, emerge as the movement's figurehead. This development was particularly notable given the initial support and subsequent disavowal from Echmiadzin, the spiritual center of the Armenian Apostolic Church, revealing internal divisions.

Khzmalyan articulated a broader sentiment of dissatisfaction among the Armenian populace with Prime Minister Pashinyan's policies, estimating that about 10% of the population shared this discontent yet refrained from active protest. He argued that this silent majority's stance was critical in the country's political processes, emphasizing that their silence carried more weight than the vocal opposition of the active minority.

The crux of the discontent, Khzmalyan suggested, lay in the differing visions for Armenia's future. The active minority of protestors advocates for a return to Russian political alignment, while the silent majority prefers a path toward European integration. This majority, he claimed, abstains from protests to avoid being seen as endorsing the opposition, despite their dissatisfaction with Pashinyan's governance.

Regarding the potential for a change in leadership, Khzmalyan was skeptical of the opposition's ability to garner sufficient momentum to oust Pashinyan. He predicted that once the fervor of the active minority wanes, the silent majority would eventually voice their demands for democratic succession and continued pursuit of European integration.

Khzmalyan also touched upon the geopolitical implications of the protests, asserting that Russia is keen to maintain its influence in the South Caucasus. He posited that Moscow's strategy might involve destabilizing the region to thwart Armenia's Western drift. In his view, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Armenia is a necessary step towards achieving lasting peace in the Caucasus.