Israeli President Ishaq Herzog called Iran's attack on Israel a declaration of war, the President of Israel said in an interview with the British TV channel “Sky News.” The president evaded the question of how Israel would react to the shelling of its territory. Western media reported that Israel was preparing to attack Iran.
What consequences can there be for the South Caucasus in the event of a direct military clash between Iran and Israel? What position should Azerbaijan take on this issue?
Political commentator Sadreddin Soltan answers to these questions in the "Difficult Question" program.
According to him, Iran is waging a proxy war against Israel. Iran strikes at Israeli territory through Hezbollah, Hamas, the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, supplies the Houthis in Yemen with rockets that they fire at Israel, and with the help of Hashd al-Shaabi (militia) creates problems for US bases in Iraq and Syria.
Iran's decision to strike Israel not by proxy, but independently, according to the expert, was caused by two reasons:
The first reason is emotional. The attack on the Iranian consulate building in Damascus, which killed at least 13 people, among them high-ranking IRGC Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi and his deputy, General Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi, naturally could not but infuriate Tehran. Moreover, in 2020, the commander of the Al-Quds special forces in the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), designed to conduct special operations outside Iran, Qasem Suleimani, was eliminated in almost the same way by the United States
The second reason is pragmatic. The Israeli action in Damascus could lead to the loss of faith in the power of the country's leadership among the residents of Iran and to despondency in the ranks of proxies (Fatimiyun, Zeinabiyun, etc.). To dispel these doubts, it was decided to strike at Israel.
Soltan drew attention to the fact that Israel is in no hurry to strike back at Iran. In his opinion, Israel's allies and partners advised not to rush and act carefully. First of all, Iran's action should receive a legal assessment from the G7 countries, after which new, very heavy, destructive sanctions for the Iranian economy may follow. However, not only with regard to Iran, but also Russia and China supporting it, if any of their participation in the Iranian action against Israel is revealed.
Referring to the consequences for the South Caucasus in the event of a direct military clash between Iran and Israel and the position that Azerbaijan should take on this issue, the expert said: "Azerbaijan does not want a war between Iran and Israel and will try to do everything possible to avoid such a scenario." At the same time, he noted that 35 million Azerbaijani Turks and society live in Iran, and the Azerbaijani government should help ensure their safety. Azerbaijan can solve this problem with the support of Turkey, the United States, Great Britain and Israel.
Difficult question
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