Aliyev expressed disappointment over the lack of EU investments in gas infrastructure.

Two years have passed since Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen signed the "Memorandum of Understanding on Strategic Partnership in the Energy Sector" in Baku. Despite initial optimism, a full-fledged partnership has not materialized. Europe's fears of gas shortages in 2022, spurred by its rejection of Russian gas amid the Ukraine conflict, have subsided after two years of legal and trade maneuvers with Russian gas.

In July 2022, the EU sought Azerbaijani gas to offset Russian supplies. However, it became evident that Azerbaijan could not quickly provide significant volumes, and the EU would need to invest in infrastructure to increase supplies, a risky and long-term commitment. The EU's recognition that natural gas will play a crucial role until 2030, but be phased out by 2050, tempered immediate actions.

The Southern Gas Corridor (SGC), including the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) and Turkish segment TANAP, currently supplies 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually to Europe, peaking at 11.5 bcm. In 2022, Azerbaijan and the EU aimed to double this to 20 bcm by 2027. However, recent statements by Aliyev adjust this target to 16 bcm by 2027, doubling from 8 bcm in 2021.

In 2024, Azerbaijani gas exports to the EU are expected to reach 13 bcm. Additional supplies will come through the SGC and the Turkish-Bulgarian border hub, with TAP potentially handling up to 13.2 bcm by 2026. Despite technical feasibility, sustaining such peaks long-term remains uncertain.

At his July 20 press meeting in Shusha, Aliyev expressed disappointment over the lack of EU investments in gas infrastructure, emphasizing the need for substantial funding and long-term contracts to justify further development. He criticized EU expectations for Azerbaijan to invest billions in capacity expansion while planning to phase out gas use within a decade.

Currently, Azerbaijani gas reaches five EU states, Serbia, Turkey, and Georgia. Italy, Bulgaria, and Greece are consistent buyers, while others sporadically purchase small volumes. Many European countries still rely on cheaper Russian gas despite sanctions.

Aliyev also highlighted Azerbaijan's role in facilitating negotiations on Russian gas transit through Ukraine to Europe. The existing transit agreement expires at the end of the year, and while Kyiv has conditions for extension, Azerbaijan may act as an intermediary.

With ongoing negotiations involving SOCAR and potential Turkmen gas deals, Azerbaijan's ability to influence the regional gas market remains constrained by limited reserves and geopolitical dynamics.