Azerbaijan's GDP Grew by 0.8% in the First Eight Months of 2024

Azerbaijan’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.8% in the January-August 2024 period, reaching 80.96 billion manats ($47.62 billion), reflecting stability in overall production compared to the same period in 2023, according to data from the State Statistics Committee.

This figure contrasts with the report from the State Statistics Committee indicating a GDP growth rate of 4.3% for January-August 2024, highlighting discrepancies in official data. Although GDP declined by 4.5% in April and by 3% in May, the State Statistics Committee continues to assert a 4.5% growth rate. According to Turan’s calculations, GDP grew by 0.24% over the first seven months of 2024, while the State Statistics Committee claims it increased by 4.5%. The committee has yet to disclose the factors behind the discrepancies in the data presented.

The committee’s report for the first eight months of this year revealed a key shift in sectoral growth, with Azerbaijan's non-oil and gas sector showing steady growth. From January to August 2024, the sector grew by 7%, a significant improvement compared to the 2.6% growth recorded in the same period in 2023. These figures underscore the country’s ongoing efforts to diversify its economy and reduce dependence on oil revenues.

In contrast, the oil and gas sector in 2024 saw modest recovery, with added value increasing by 0.2% compared to a 1.1% decline in the previous year.

Industry, dominated by the oil and gas sector, remained the largest source of Azerbaijan’s GDP in 2024, accounting for 37.9% of total production. However, this marks a decline from the 42.4% share it held in 2023, indicating reduced industrial activity.

Meanwhile, other sectors saw slight growth. Trade and vehicle repair contributed 9.7% to GDP in 2024, compared to 9.5% in 2023. Construction also increased, rising from 4.8% to 6.1%. Other notable contributors included transport and warehousing (7%), agriculture, forestry, and fishing (6%), and accommodation and food services (2.5%).

Net taxes on products and imports accounted for 10.1% of GDP, up from 9.4% the previous year.

GDP per capita increased slightly to 7,941.3 manats in 2024, compared to 7,895 manats in 2023, reflecting a modest rise in the average income of Azerbaijani citizens.

The GDP growth forecast for the full year of 2024 stands at 1.8%, identical to the forecast for 2023. Growth in the non-oil sector is expected to reach 4.9%, while a 1.5% decline is forecasted for the oil sector. These figures suggest stable expectations for the country’s economic trajectory.

In comparison, Azerbaijan’s GDP grew by 4.6% in 2022, with the non-oil and gas sector expanding by 9.1%, indicating a slowdown in economic activity over the past two years.

While nominal GDP figures and real growth rates remained stable from January-August 2023 to 2024, Azerbaijan’s economic structure has undergone significant changes. Higher non-oil sector performance and declining industrial activity indicate the country’s ongoing transition to a more diversified economy. The oil sector, though recovering slightly, remains a potential area of concern, while other sectors like trade and construction continue to grow.