Is the Government Fulfilling Its Environmental Commitments?

Gulnar Mammadova (a pseudonym), who has suffered from asthma in Baku for seven years, says summer has become increasingly challenging in recent years. According to her, the intense heat combined with high humidity in summer negatively impacts her health: "Summers in Baku have been hotter compared to previous years. The humidity is overwhelming, so I try to go to the countryside. But renting a place in the regions, even for a month in summer, is quite costly."

Statistics on asthma in Azerbaijan for the past two years have not been released. In early 2021, there were 8,797 asthma cases in the country, rising to 17,557 by year’s end. Experts claim that asthma cases have increased significantly.

Experts argue that rising carbon dioxide levels and global warming, due to increased greenhouse gases, harm both agriculture and human health. They suggest that sudden weather changes can also raise mortality rates from heart and respiratory illnesses. Rising CO2 contributes to a greenhouse effect that elevates temperatures, leading to higher humidity due to increased water evaporation. According to research by the international statistics center "World Statistics," Azerbaijan ranked second globally in 2023 for cardiovascular-related deaths, with 388 deaths per 100,000 people.

Azerbaijan’s Commitments

The Azerbaijani government made commitments at COP26 in Glasgow to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, as Azerbaijan prepares to host COP29, recent data suggests it has yet to meet these obligations. Azerbaijan’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) document set a target to reduce emissions by 35% by 2030, based on 1990 levels. This target was later increased to 40%, with a commitment to create a "net-zero emissions" zone in liberated territories.

The State Statistics Committee reports that Azerbaijan emitted 78.9 million tons of greenhouse gases in 1990. Although emissions fell to 42.2 million tons in 2000, they rose to 58.1 million tons by 2021. By 2030, emissions should fall to 51.3 million tons, or 35% of 1990 levels. Still, at a recent international conference on carbon assessment, Ministry of Economy official Huseyn Huseynov highlighted Azerbaijan’s 0.13% share in global carbon emissions, with nearly 50% of global emissions attributed to China, the U.S., India, Russia, Japan, Iran, and the EU.

According to the State Statistics Committee, emissions mainly come from the energy sector, with 81.2% of Azerbaijan’s greenhouse gas emissions from energy production in 2021.

What is the Government Doing?

The Ministry of Energy told "Turan" that Azerbaijan aims to have renewable energy comprise 30% of its energy mix by 2030: "Currently, renewable energy capacity stands at 1.6878 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 20.3% of total capacity. Additional stations expected to be operational in the next three years could free up 1.2 billion cubic meters of gas and reduce carbon emissions by 2.5 million tons."

By 2027, Azerbaijan plans to invest approximately $2.8 billion in building eight industrial-scale solar and wind power plants with a total capacity of 2 gigawatts, increasing the share of green energy in electricity production to 33% by 2027. The goal is to reach 7 gigawatts of green energy by 2030.

"Azerbaijan Should Follow This Path"

Natig Jafarli, head of the REAL Party and economist, told Radio Liberty that Azerbaijan has substantial potential in renewable energy but is focused on being the dominant player. He suggests a broader campaign to engage the public, as has been done in Turkey, where around 6 million families meet their energy needs through solar panels obtained with interest-free loans, even selling excess energy to the state.

Jafarli believes Azerbaijan could follow suit: "In Aran, where there are 300 sunny days annually, roofs could easily be replaced with solar panels. Similarly, wind energy could be utilized along the Caspian coast. The state should encourage private businesses and the public to get involved."

"Trees are Planted, Left Unattended, Money Wasted"

Environmental expert Telman Zeynalov told Radio Liberty that there is no oversight to ensure Azerbaijan meets its environmental commitments. Previously, trees were planted and maintained, but now, "trees are replaced every two years without care, burn out, and are replanted, wasting money."

According to the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, over three million trees were planted in Azerbaijan in 2023, with five million more planned for this year.

Trillions Needed, and a New Tax Could Be Introduced

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions requires substantial investment, Azerbaijani officials say, echoing global calls for trillions of dollars to develop efficient power networks. Azerbaijan aims to apply economic incentives as part of its decarbonization strategy, potentially shifting some financial burdens onto businesses.

The Ministries of Economy and Ecology and Natural Resources are reportedly working on a long-term carbon taxation strategy. Economist Natig Jafarli noted that carbon taxes are a trending international approach aligned with the COP29 agenda. The rationale is that higher tax burdens could shift production toward lower-emission processes, a strategy expected to affect oil and gas-producing countries.

As an oil and gas-producing country, Jafarli warns this approach might harm Azerbaijan in the long run. He argues that instead of adding tax burdens on citizens and businesses, Azerbaijan should focus on creating a favorable environment to attract foreign investment.

"Environmental Prisoner"

International organizations continue to criticize Azerbaijan’s human rights record. Whether the country will fulfill its environmental obligations remains to be seen. In June 2023, residents of Soyudlu village in Gadabay district protested against pollution from a local gold factory, which reportedly poisoned the area. The protests led to arrests, the road to the village was closed, and the area remains under surveillance.

Although the factory was temporarily shut down, operations eventually resumed. Businessman Nazim Beydamirli, who supported the villagers, was sentenced to nine years in prison on extortion charges. The former MP denies the charges, referring to himself as an "environmental prisoner."