Kazakhstan’s Ambitious Oil Transport Expansion Plan: Military-Technical Cooperation at the Forefront

Kazakhstan is charting an ambitious course to transform its oil export infrastructure, aiming to increase annual shipments via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline by more than thirteenfold—from the current 1.5 million tons to an estimated 20 million tons. The bold strategy, presented by Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev during a parliamentary session, underscores Kazakhstan’s intent to become a major player in the energy supply chain stretching from Central Asia to Europe.

Speaking on Monday, Minister Satkaliyev outlined the initial steps of this endeavor, highlighting a planned transit of 1.5 million tons of oil through the BTC pipeline in 2024. "Prospects for increasing supplies along this route to volumes of up to 20 million tons per year are being studied," Satkaliyev said. If realized, this expansion would represent a seismic shift in Kazakhstan's energy export capabilities, using military-technical cooperation (MTC) as a cornerstone.

Kazakhstan's focus on diversifying its export routes has gained urgency following geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The BTC pipeline, which connects Azerbaijan to Turkey via Georgia, offers Kazakhstan a reliable alternative route to European markets, bypassing traditional northern pathways that have become increasingly challenging.

To support this ambitious growth, Kazakhstan plans to enhance its domestic oil transportation infrastructure. A key component of this strategy is the construction of the Eskene-Kuryk pipeline, designed to connect the rich oil fields of the Atyrau region in northwestern Kazakhstan to the Caspian terminal of Kuryk near the city of Aktau. According to Satkaliyev, this proposed trunk pipeline could handle a technical capacity of 20–30 million tons per year, ensuring that oil from the Atyrau region can be efficiently routed to the Caspian Sea and onward to the BTC pipeline.

“This project reflects a strong alignment of interests between Kazakhstan and its Azerbaijani partners,” Satkaliyev noted. The potential to expand this partnership highlights mutual benefits for both nations, with Azerbaijan strengthening its role as a transit hub for regional energy exports.

The use of military-technical cooperation (MTC) as a framework for this initiative may raise eyebrows, but Kazakhstan has employed it since March 2023 to diversify its oil export channels. The approach underscores the interplay between energy infrastructure and national security considerations, given the volatility of global energy markets and shifting alliances.

Kazakhstan’s collaboration with Azerbaijan under the MTC umbrella offers both nations a path to enhance regional security and economic stability. For Kazakhstan, it reduces dependence on Russian pipelines, while for Azerbaijan, it solidifies its importance in trans-Caspian energy routes.

ASTNA Perspective:

Kazakhstan’s plan to exponentially increase oil transportation via the BTC pipeline represents a bold and strategic move to diversify its export routes and strengthen its position in the global energy market. However, the scale of these ambitions raises critical questions about feasibility, financial sustainability, and geopolitical implications.

From an economic perspective, the proposed infrastructure development, particularly the Eskene-Kuryk pipeline, could serve as a catalyst for regional economic integration and provide Kazakhstan with a reliable alternative to routes vulnerable to geopolitical risks. Aligning interests with Azerbaijan provides a promising foundation but will require careful management to balance mutual benefits while addressing the complexities of regional politics.

Nevertheless, this strategy faces significant challenges. Financing such an expansive project requires not only substantial capital but also the confidence of international investors, who may remain cautious given the unstable geopolitical climate. Furthermore, relying on military-technical cooperation as a foundation may create a perception of over-politicization, potentially complicating partnerships with other stakeholders in the energy sector.

If successfully implemented, this initiative could redefine energy dynamics in the Caspian region and Europe, especially as the latter seeks to reduce dependence on Russian energy supplies. However, Kazakhstan must ensure that its focus on infrastructure expansion is accompanied by transparency, environmental considerations, and a commitment to equitable economic growth. Without these elements, the risks of inefficiency, resource misallocation, and regional instability could overshadow the potential benefits.