Response of an Analyst to Ukrainian Anti-Azerbaijani Sentiments

In Ukraine, a well-known businessman is urging the public to boycott SOCAR gas stations in protest of Vladimir Putin's visit to Azerbaijan and Baku's desire to join BRICS. "Following Azerbaijan's application for BRICS membership, details emerged regarding SOCAR's activities in Ukraine. Through it, products allegedly derived from Russian oil may have entered the country," said major Ukrainian fuel importer Dmytro Leushkin, founder of the Prime group of companies. The businessman called on Ukrainian state and private companies to cease cooperation with SOCAR. Political analyst and director of Sage Solutions, Fikret Mamedov, believes this initiative is mistaken. He answered questions from Turan.

Question: The Ukrainian leadership has not reacted to the public initiative against Azerbaijan. What if official Kyiv makes an anti-Azerbaijani statement?

Answer: If Ukraine ultimately decides that it needs to issue an ultimatum to Azerbaijan in the style of "either us or the Russians," I believe Azerbaijan will choose Russia and would be entirely justified. The size of the economy, shared borders, population, volume of financial transfers, foreign trade turnover, and other factors make Russia a more attractive partner than Ukraine, regardless of how much sympathy exists in our country for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Ukraine, and Ukrainians. From an economic standpoint, Russia is a more preferable partner, based on the numbers, despite its political inadequacies.

Question: Do you believe Baku's policy towards the two warring states is the right one?

Answer: Azerbaijan never forms alliances against anyone. If it signs contracts and agreements with Russia, it is not against Ukraine. It is done to address its own economic, social, and humanitarian issues. Similarly, the agreements signed with Ukraine are not aimed at upsetting the Russians. Azerbaijan always tries to minimize the risks and concerns of its partners. That is why Azerbaijan is in the Non-Aligned Movement – to show Russia and Iran that we do not intend to turn our territory into a base against them, not to lead Africans into a bright future.

Question: Some Azerbaijani politicians and citizens also criticize Baku for its close ties with Russia and Putin's visit to Baku. What is your opinion on these sentiments?

Answer: The confrontational policy chosen by Ukraine, unlike Azerbaijan, has not yet yielded the desired results. It is thanks to diplomacy that Azerbaijan ensured Russia's neutrality in the recent wars in Karabakh. It was diplomacy that allowed the peacekeepers to be withdrawn from Karabakh earlier than planned. As a country, we do not operate on the principle of "might makes right," unlike Russia or Ukraine. The President of Azerbaijan protects the interests and security of Azerbaijan and does not want to confront Putin. Did Ukraine sever relations with Armenia over the 30-year occupation of Karabakh? And does it oppose Paris arming Armenia? So why should we?

Let's return to SOCAR, which has become a point of contention among the three countries.

Answer: The initiator of the Ukrainian anti-SOCAR campaign, Leushkin, is wrong because SOCAR supplies fuel from Turkey, from the Star Refinery, which also processes Russian oil. Leushkin suggests buying petroleum products from Bulgaria. I hate to disappoint Leushkin, but the largest refinery in Bulgaria, in Burgas, is directly owned by Lukoil. This plant has stopped purchasing Russian oil, but that changes nothing. Lukoil swaps oil, figuratively speaking, giving its oil to someone else, and that someone returns it to Lukoil. Essentially, nothing changes, only more paperwork. Unlike SOCAR in Ukraine, Lukoil does not pay taxes into the Ukrainian treasury, does not create jobs, does not rebuild the city of Irpin destroyed by Russia, and does not invest millions in social and humanitarian programs in Ukraine. SOCAR Energy Ukraine is among the top ten taxpayers among 200 companies in the Ukrainian fuel market. So, replacing SOCAR with Lukoil is possible, but it would result in a pure capital outflow.