Comic analysis, dead opposition parties

Following the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, the pronouncements of prominent Turkish commentators on international relations, who have seemingly just discovered the idea that "Russia is confined to the Baltic Sea," are illustrative of the nation's analytical depth. Against this backdrop, it's unsurprising that President Erdoğan, balancing conciliatory messages to the European Union with overtures to wealthy Arab Gulf nations, struggles to make headway in diplomatic circles. His attempts to gain traction with the European Union have hit a roadblock as the Union's Cabinet Ministers have set a September deadline for Turkey to release certain political detainees. With no indication of compliance, prospects for any favorable outcomes from Brussels seem dim.

The irony was palpable when Mehmet Şimşek, both the former and current Treasury and Finance Minister, invoked the "Maastricht criteria" during a meeting attended by 40 investors, as reported by Reuters, and sourced from insiders. The question inevitably arises: What sort of fiscal discipline underpins this assertion? Behind-the-scenes negotiations with Moscow remain enigmatic, but the decision of Vladimir Putin to visit Ankara carries multiple layers of significance. This marks a shift from their previous custom of summer meetings in Sochi (excluding August), and the reasons for this alteration raise intrigue. Did Erdogan's refusal to travel to Sochi, St. Petersburg, or Moscow stem from a belief that the global landscape has shifted, or are undisclosed motives at play? Could Putin's acceptance of the invitation to Ankara indicate Russia's grappling with critical challenges across various spheres? This mirrors a typified pattern: Following the February 26, 2020, killing of 33 Turkish soldiers by the Wagner group in Syria's Idlib region, Erdogan met Putin in the Kremlin on March 6. Similarly, ahead of Putin's visit, Russian military aircraft again targeted jihadist groups in Idlib, a region of paramount importance to Turkey. Russia's customary pre-diplomacy action of Idlib bombings, however, may not elicit a reciprocal response from Turkey, currently grappling with a teetering economy.

As the primary opposition party readies for its upcoming congress amidst the most severe economic crisis in the republic's century-long history, political dynamics paint a paradoxical picture. Despite electoral setbacks, Meral Akşener of the İYİ Party managed to convene a formal congress a month ago, benefiting from parties' undemocratic electoral systems, without causing a stir within the ruling party. The fate of the main opposition party's metropolitan municipalities in the impending March 2024 local elections hangs in the balance, given the unyielding tenure of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, its leader for 13.5 years. In the aftermath of the May 14/28 elections, minor parties that aligned with the Nation Alliance, securing 10-15 parliamentary seats from the main opposition, lay the blame for their defeat on the opposition itself. They're now asserting their intention to field their own candidates in the 2024 local elections. Pronouncements by former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, former Deputy Prime Minister overseeing the economy Ali Babacan, and Meral Akşener – who seeks to perpetuate her pre-election tactics – inadvertently ease the ruling coalition's legislative journey. Discontent among a considerable segment of the populace, primarily CHP voters, ensues from the government's flawed policies, fostering a palpable resentment against these dynamics.

The fragmented state of the opposition bloc, even after electoral defeat, impedes any meaningful momentum in the political landscape. Paradoxically, in democratic systems, a lack of opposition cohesion dampens political dynamism, effectively granting the ruling government a freer hand. As August approaches, a historically sluggish period for Turkish politics, the prevailing disarray within the opposition threatens to render political life almost dormant.