Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accompanied by Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, meets with US White House adviser Jared Kushner in Ankara, Turkey, February 27, 2019 (Reuters photo)
As Donald Trump solidifies his comeback bid, having become only the second individual in U.S. history to mount a successful return after defeat, a notable shift ripples across Turkey’s political landscape. The news has rekindled discussions around President Erdoğan’s high-profile son-in-law, Berat Albayrak, whose name has once again stirred public and political interest. In 2017, while serving as Turkey’s energy minister, Albayrak posed for a memorable photograph alongside Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, in the White House. Arms confidently by his side, Albayrak seemed to convey with his gaze, “I am the man you’re looking for.” Recollections also linger of Albayrak presenting a symbolic gold mine key to then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson at the Istanbul World Energy Congress that same year.
However, despite Erdoğan’s “friend Donald” rhetoric, Trump’s social media threats in 2018 ignited a sharp currency devaluation in Turkey. A series of tweets from Trump pushed the Turkish lira to the brink, culminating in an ominous warning to “destroy your currency.” The Erdoğan administration, caught in the wave of financial instability, was perhaps unprepared for the devaluation's depth. Turkey’s traditional friction with the Democratic Party continued under Biden, who, amid the October 2023 Israel-HAMAS conflict, left Ankara frustrated over perceived leniency toward Israel’s Netanyahu. Despite diplomatic pressure, Erdoğan and his administration found little success in swaying the U.S. stance. Given this dynamic, speculation around a potential vice-presidency for Albayrak seems, for now, better shelved as Turkey refocuses on what it might expect from a renewed Trump administration.
Under Biden, the U.S. persisted in its foundational project from Trump’s tenure—“normalizing” relations between Arab nations and Israel. As it stands, this strategy, crafted to stabilize the region, appears set to continue beyond Trump’s next potential term, suggesting a constant in U.S.-Middle East policy. Turkey, previously sidelined, may find engagement challenging even if Trump regains office. Meanwhile, decisions Trump might make regarding the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict are still murky, but a post-war Turkey could envision a renewed mediating role for Istanbul as a host of peace talks.
In recent remarks, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed frustration, saying, “Turkish arms provided to Ukraine are being used against our people.” The future of Turkey’s defense cooperation with Ukraine, along with Trump’s stance on the matter, remains unclear. If Trump’s return prompts Ankara to extend an “olive branch” to Moscow, only time will reveal if Russia embraces it.
Trump’s return also stirs questions about domestic dynamics. Although Albayrak may harbor ambitions, Erdoğan’s long-standing pragmatism suggests that even Trump’s presidency is unlikely to secure Albayrak the vice-presidency, no matter the appeal. As Erdoğan weighs his relationship with Washington, he’s more likely to focus on recalibrating U.S.-Turkey relations as Trump’s next steps become clear.
In the shadow of the war across the Black Sea and escalating conflict in Gaza, with Israel’s heavy bombing campaigns in Lebanon and Gaza, Ankara finds itself grappling with regional instability. Turkish think tanks may well be working around the clock, tasked with forming strategies to address the complexities ahead.
Domestically, the Kurdish issue remains a central point of contention. A recent wave of appointed trustees, replacing Kurdish mayors across several Turkish cities, has stirred Turkey’s opposition party, with notable figures like Ahmet Türk, a seasoned Kurdish politician and former mayor of Mardin, once again removed from office. For Erdoğan, addressing the Kurdish question by sidelining established figures, while keeping dialogue with Öcalan alive, seems a viable path. Erdoğan’s ally, the Nationalist Movement Party’s leader Devlet Bahçeli, recently proposed that Turkey’s detained Kurdish leader Öcalan address parliament, signaling a renewed interest in engaging with the Kurdish issue through unconventional avenues.
This strategy, while drawing attention away from economic issues, provides the ruling party space to regroup, hoping to navigate the turbulence both domestically and abroad. The next phase of Erdoğan’s approach will determine whether Trump’s renewed influence translates into a revived U.S.-Turkey alliance, or if old tensions simply resurface under new circumstances.
Great East
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