From radical rhetorics outside to radical law changes inside

The joint press conference between the head of state of Turkey and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was the third tense "action" in which the country's leaders participated after the Cold War. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan directly participated in two of these three "actions".

On September 3, 1996, after the Libyan leader Gaddafi spoke harsh words to Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan, teacher of political Islamists of Turkey, at a press conference, the opposition and the armed forces, which had a strong influence on politics at that time, reacted very harshly to this incident.

On January 29, 2009, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Prime Minister Erdoğan left the hall saying "I will not come here again" after making an anti-Semitic speech against Israeli President Shimon Peres.

At the press conference held in Berlin on November 17, the fact that the head of state of Turkey was in an offensive position from the beginning to the end was written in golden letters in the history of him and political Islam. In the press conference, the target of the Turkish head of state was not the German chancellor, but Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and this will continue like that. Because the head of state Erdoğan, who correctly read the situation in Israel and the world, sees that the most realistic way is to chase the Prime Minister of Israel.

Adding to the grumblings and harsh reactions of the current head of government of Israel, with Washington as its closest ally, there is a strong possibility that Netanyahu will be removed from power in the first election. Netanyahu's departure from power will have a positive effect on the rating of the Turkish head of state in the country. Mr. Erdoğan needs it like air and water. Despite the fact that 6 months have passed since the last election, the fact that Mr. Erdoğan brought up giving up the 50+1 formula in order to be elected president shows that he does not rely on this formula for the near and maybe mid-term future.

No, it is not about whether Mr. Erdoğan will personally be a candidate in the early or on-time election. The issue here is Mr. Erdoğan's concern about the future of the political movement of which he is the leader.

On the other hand, since October 2016, the Nationalist Movement Party's unconditional support for the AKP and Mr. Erdoğan, leaving aside its political philosophy and party organization, would definitely worry the head of state one day. Despite the fact that the Nationalist Movement Party, which is a minor partner of the government, received 5.3 times fewer votes than the major partner of the government in the parliamentary election, it can bind the major partner in any way it wants. On the other hand, these tactical moves of MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli, who announced before AKP that he would support AKP's candidate in the two presidential elections, may turn into an unexpected blow for the major partner of power.

Despite 7 years of support, the lack of cohesion between the voters of AKP and MHP indicates that the process of unconditional support cannot continue for a long time. As the current most powerful person in Turkish politics and state administration, Mr. Erdoğan can direct and control these processes. However, if Erdoğan is not there tomorrow, will another leader of the AKP be able to control the MHP so easily? It seems that Mr. Erdoğan also has legitimate doubts about this and while the road is not far away, he is trying to solve the case from the root so that no one is left in need. With the changes to be made in the constitution and the election law, the 50+1 condition for the election of the president in the first round of the election will be abolished, and the candidate with the most votes in the first round will be considered the president. Abolition of the 50+1 formula will not cause difficulties for AKP leader and head of state Erdoğan. When the draft decision to amend the basic law and laws comes to the parliament, it will also be attractive for other political parties to give up the 50+1 formula.

Despite the complete abandonment of the economic policy followed from July 2018 to May 2023, it is not possible to achieve macroeconomic balances or to attract new investments from abroad. The municipal election to be held on March 31, 2024, will be perhaps the most important election of Mr. Erdoğan’s half-century political career. That is why it is necessary to keep the field of political maneuvers open against the possibility of not achieving positive results in the economy on the way to the election. The cancellation of the 50+1 formula was brought up in a different way before, but the law was not amended.

Let's see what Mr. Erdoğan will do this time.