From the agenda of the natural disaster to the political competition: it is a satisfying tableau despite everything

Yes, the 20.5-year-old ruling party made the right analysis and saw that the postponement of the presidential and parliamentary elections due to the earthquake would have negative consequences for them, and stood on two dates that have not yet been decided: if not on May 14, then on June 18 at the latest, people will flock to the polling stations to elect both the parliament and the head of state.

Undoubtedly, political Islam did not take into account the natural disaster while evaluating 2023 as the decisive stage of its goals for a long time. Therefore, when the first results of the earthquake that leveled 10 provinces of the country on February 6 are eliminated, the reaction of the citizens in the ballot boxes will remain a mystery for the ruling party until the last moment. Nevertheless, preparations have begun, and the results of the May 14 or June 18 elections will either be a bitter defeat for Mr. Erdoğan in his half-century of political life or show that at least half of Turkey's voters continue to adore him regardless.

A few days ago, when I spoke with a voter with a primary education who worshiped Erdoğan, he explained the formula of worship in this way: "Let no one doubt that he will protect his seat as soon as he goes to the squares and says, “It's the destiny”."

I said, "I don't doubt it," and satisfied that adoring voter.

If two words in the form of "It's the destiny" will re-consolidate the masses that have unhesitatingly and loyally supported the AKP until now, I ask you to forgive my ignorance for not remembering the other example of this formula in the history of political Islam, and I hasten to take a look at the situation in the opposition wing. "All Quiet on the Western Front," said Erich Maria Remarque.

Less than 3 months before the election, the situation in the opposition front of Turkey is the same: despite the main opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu trying to create consolidation by toughening his words, the leader of the İYİ Party, Meral Akşener, does not turn a hair to make the official representatives of the political institution she heads to be with rhyme or reason.

While Selahattin Demirtaş, who has a great influence on the Kurdish-leaning voters, pointed to consolidation around Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in his message sent from prison, the fact that İYİ Party leader Meral Akşner said again after 6 months, "We will not be a notary", shows that there is still no complete solidarity at the table where 6 parties gather.

What does Meral Akşener want to do? Let me answer without further ado: Seeing that Erdoğan also needs her, she is trying to make the opposition bloc also need her. In other words, she keeps the repeat "Candidate who can be elected" constantly on the agenda by hinting that the leader of the main opposition party may not be elected, includes this repeat in the agenda of the table where 6 parties gather together, and tries to make the leaders accept that there is no other alternative than her candidacy.

If Akşener continues this tactic, can the table where 6 parties come together collapse? The table may end its life and, as we wrote earlier, Meral Akşener may go to the side of the ruling bloc.

It will not be a surprise for me personally, and in this situation, it is not certain whether the number of voters who will solve the problems of the AKP will follow Akşener from the İYİ Party. Instead, it is not difficult to say that more people will come closer to the opposition bloc among the Kurdish-oriented voters, who stay away from Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu just because of the İYİ Party and especially Akşener's worldview.

If we add to this that the left and even radical left forces, which have greatly increased their activity in recent months and tend to consolidate, will move toward the opposition bloc, we can expect that the monitoring and control over the counting of votes will become stronger on the election day. It is nothing but naive to expect that the new address of help will be the İYİ Party when the hope for Devlet Bahçeli's Nationalist Movement Party, which unconditionally supports Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is diminishing every day. Those who consider the Turkish voter with 73 years of democratic experience to be so foolish may face the opposite result at the ballot box.

Doesn't switching from the earthquake agenda to the election agenda show that Turkey is alive and well?