The futility of attempts to shift the agenda...

Reports and analyses from the Russian media indicate that President Putin is eagerly awaiting Turkish President Erdoğan’s attendance at the BRICS summit in Kazan, scheduled for October 22-24. Despite efforts by Turkey’s often superficial media to bring Vladimir Putin to Ankara since the start of the year, these attempts have not materialized. Similarly, discussions about Erdoğan traveling to Moscow or Sochi have remained unfulfilled. Although the issue has been raised multiple times on TV and in the press, it seems the underlying reasons continue to be misunderstood. So, let's clarify once more: according to an agreement between Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey regarding the "Azov commanders," five commanders were supposed to remain in Turkey until the end of the war. However, in July 2023, Ukrainian President Zelensky visited Turkey and took the five "Azov commanders" with him when he left, a move that President Putin has been unable to forgive. Although Putin and Erdoğan held a one-on-one meeting during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Astana on July 2-3, it’s likely this sensitive issue wasn’t raised. Now, however, the situation is more complicated for Turkey, and it appears Putin will address this matter in a serious way during his meeting with Erdoğan in Kazan.

Over the past year, Turkey has struggled to exert influence in Middle Eastern affairs, and it now seems unlikely that Turkey will be able to collaborate effectively with Russia and Iran to resolve the Syrian crisis. Moreover, one should not expect Russia, which has been covertly supporting Iran’s stance against Israel, to bring Turkey into these strategic processes. International organizations like the Organization of Turkic States, the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization, the Islamic Cooperation Organization, D-8, and ECO—once highly regarded by Erdoğan—now appear to function primarily as vehicles for distributing high salaries to those close to the ruling party. As a result, Turkey seems to be reverting to more traditional policies. After Erdoğan's dramatic move to reset relations with Egypt, his October 10-11 trip to Serbia and Montenegro seems mainly focused on trade and filling the schedule while waiting for the U.S. presidential election. Since re-energizing relations with the U.S. and the European Union will likely have to wait until January 20, 2025, Ankara is patiently counting down the three-month period.

Erdoğan’s recent remarks, made on his return from Serbia, about upcoming changes in the government and party leadership should be understood in this context. The situation is straightforward: Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek's attempts to restore macroeconomic stability have been viewed by many as "cooking the books," and his efforts to artificially lower inflation figures have failed to convince the public. This has emboldened the main opposition party, which governs municipalities in regions generating 80% of the national income, to intensify its calls for early elections. In response, figures such as Speaker of the Parliament Numan Kurtulmuş, chief advisor Mehmet Uçum, Minister of National Education Yusuf Tekin, and occasionally party deputies are pushed forward to shift the economic narrative. Despite these efforts, the main opposition party, strengthened by its gains in the March 31 local elections, has managed to steer the national conversation back to economic issues. Smaller political parties, meanwhile, remain largely inactive and ineffective, while the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Erdoğan’s coalition partner, sparked speculation of a renewed "peace process" when he shook hands with pro-Kurdish MPs. However, MHP leader Bahçeli quickly dispelled such rumors, stating there was "no possibility of a peace process" and calling for the terrorist group to surrender, thus bringing the agenda back to its usual course. In the coming days, all attention will be focused on the government and party leadership changes Erdoğan is expected to make, and it will soon become clear what kind of hopes these changes may inspire.

Ultimately, Turkey, a nation with an economy in disarray and a foreign policy that has zigzagged under Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu's nine-year tenure as foreign minister, must first and foremost lift its citizens out of the desperate situation they find themselves in. Between 2002 and 2011, Turkey set a global example with its democratic reforms, but since August 2018, it has been unable to escape the turbulence affecting its macroeconomic indicators. Ordinary citizens are well aware that changing the political agenda two or three times a week will not resolve these deeply rooted problems.

Undoubtedly, the most experienced figure in current Turkish politics and governance is also...