What will be important for the voter?

The processes are becoming clearer: Devlet Bahçeli, the leader of the MHP, a minor ally of the ruling bloc, in his speech in the parliamentary faction, after raising hell with the rest of the opposition bloc, suddenly changed his style and brought "the holding of parliamentary and presidential elections on May 14 by consensus" on the agenda. As soon as AKP leader and head of state Erdoğan took the stage after him, the representatives of power sitting in the high seat, especially Minister of Justice, Bekir Bozdağ, did not feel the need to hide their intentions.

Yes, the processes are moving toward the point we have mentioned several times before: we said that the current governance system of Turkey (fully empowered presidency) was created by Mr. Erdoğan and after the parliamentary/presidential election held on June 24, 2018, the changed system has been de facto in effect since July 9 when the head of state announced the composition of the new government and made his first decisions.

That's why, after giving rise to discussions and controversies in the form of "Erdoğan cannot be a candidate for the third time", which started in the summer of last year, the AKP leader and head of state, who saw that it would be unnecessary to waste time on the issue of "candidacy for the third time" in the election process, put into circulation the version that he was completely confident about: Erdoğan is the first president of the new system, there are no obstacles to his candidacy for the second time.

While the current ruling party and the representatives of the ruling party defend this version, which is valid in practice, without leaving any room for doubt, MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli, in his next speech before the parliamentary faction on January 24 at the latest, will use this fact and put an end to the debates about the candidacy of Mr. Erdoğan and the legal semantics of the date of May 14, which was brought up on the agenda, will also be deciphered in this way. Since this system, which mostly works with statutory decrees signed by the President (like the decrees in Azerbaijan), largely leaves the parliament out of circulation, the opposition will have no choice but to look for new easy pickings. However, it seems that the opposition is still not aware of this reality created by Mr. Erdoğan on July 9, 2018 (i.e., that he completely changed the governance system and started his presidential election on June 23), so it continues to rely on the chants of "He cannot be a candidate for the third time." After Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu was punished for calling the members of the High Election Council "stupid", no matter how strange it was, the fact that the opposition bloc could not express a clear position on the issue of the presidential candidate by creating clarity could not strengthen the position of the power bloc.

While we are assuming that the Ministry of Internal Affairs will dismiss İmamoğlu from office in January or appoint a guardian in his place or assuming that the AKP majority in the municipal council will elect a chairman from among themselves, the main reason why this scenario has not been realized so far is that İmamoğlu, who knew that the important part of the reports of the inspectors of the Ministry of Internal Affairs was false, strengthened the political fortification around him to a certain extent. Adding to the dilemma of the single candidate of the opposition bloc, the arrogance of the DEVA and Future Party created by those who left AKP, the work of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the main opposition party, which has managed to hold the bloc together until now, becomes difficult. While AKP representatives who are not completely sure of themselves sometimes do not avoid using examples of comedy such as Novruz Mammadov's "The issue of presidential candidacy has been agreed with the major powers of the world", Mr. Erdoğan's former deputy in charge of the economy and DEVA leader Babacan's pulse checks in the Turkish business world make the picture more uncertain instead of clarifying.

Despite the increase of the minimum wage (the salary of a member of parliament is 9.5 times the minimum wage, 6 times the pension of a member of parliament) by means of banknotes printed by the printing machines of the Central Bank, the pressure created on large market chains in November-December could not reduce inflation, nor did it help to stop it. This is the biggest threat to power. At a time of the highest inflation and the biggest housing crisis in the history of the Republic of Turkey, Mr. Erdoğan's re-candidacy may not be of much interest to the voters.

But no one can guarantee that this inflation and this crisis will not awaken the interest of the voters.

Even His Excellency Mazahir Panahov, who will be at the head of the CEC as long as the world stands still...