When the election exercises begin...

While the search for “hot money” continues, rumors about whether the parliamentary and presidential elections will be held ahead of time are not very important. In order for the current head of state to participate in the election again, the presidential election must be held in May. There is no problem here. Under the pressure of economic conditions, elections can be held, for example, in November. In essence, the main reason for the absence of a significant difference between November and May is that the probability of improvement in macroeconomic indicators has decreased to a minimum. Inflation, which traditionally falls in the summer months, started an upward trend in June, and the trend is expected to continue in July and August.

The estimated $50 billion budget approved for the second half of the year is unlikely to arrive by October, and additional budgets will be required for the last three months of the year. Just as the minister who was given the task of saving the economy does not have the capacity for it and his will is not in his hands, he is also a laughing stock with his statements. When international rating agencies draw attention to the fact that the countrys ability to pay debts is gradually decreasing and the bankruptcy flag may be raised after some time, in such an environment, one should not think that the people will be motivated to wait for the elections in May 2023: As soon as September comes, the pressure to hold elections in the near future will intensify. What is the use of the government increasing the minimum wage for the third time last year in order to minimize the impact of terrible inflation on low-income citizens?

The price hikes will last until October at the latest, with this 35% hike following previous wage hikes. When the printing of unbacked money by the Central Bank is already one of the main sources of inflationary pressure in the market, who can be fooled with money that is not printed in proportion to the country's respective gold and currency reserves? What is this if not a re-entry into the water that ran throughout the 1990s?

While the possibility of holding the elections in the autumn of this year is gettingstronger, the fact that the government and two parties supporting it, one minor and the other dwarf, have given signs of election exercises will support this observation of political commentators. The revolutionary steps that need to be taken in the economy can reverse the lost ratings.

When it is so difficult to find debt in an environment where public spending, domestic and foreign debts are at the maximum level in the history of Turkey and the monetary policy implemented by the Central Bank is ineffective, will the ruling party and its supporters expect to go to the election with a further loss of ratings or will they be able to pull miracles out of the boxes without waiting for the rating scale to go down with the slogan “Ya Allah, Bismillah, Allahu Akbar”? I continue to stand by my position until today: Erdoğan, who is currently the most powerful statesman and politician in Turkey, will create that miracle either by finding the necessary amount of money to use in the election or by skilfully using 1-2 gross mistakes of the opposition, which has yet to reveal concrete plans and programs.

There are also considerable international factors that deepen the problems for the ruling party. Turkey, which was initially enthusiastic about “mediation” in Russians war against Ukraine but froze its enthusiasm since it could not be effective, agreed to the “Tripartite Protocol” signed by foreign ministers, despite initially reacting very harshly to the issue of Sweden and Finland’s membership in NATO.

Although the sale of F-16s to Turkey came up again after Mr. Erdoğan’s meeting with US President Biden in Madrid on June 29, it seems that the entry into the S-35 missile program wasat least delayed by the current US president. Failure to release businessman Osman Kavala from prison led to the transition to the next tense phase in relations with the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe and the ECtHR. Turkey has already announced at the highest level that it does not recognize the judgments of the ECtHR, so it should not be expected that the demands of the European institutions are important for Ankara.

And finally, the normalization of relations with Armenia. Taking successive radical steps in this direction, Ankara allowed the citizens of third countries to go to Armenia through the territory of Turkey on July 1, after the negotiations held at the level of special representatives since the autumn of last year. 11 days later, the Turkish president’s phone conversation with the Armenian prime minister can be considered another radical step. It can be considered radical because Mr. Erdoğan’s letter to the neighboring country’s head of state Kocharyan in 2005 regarding the normalization of relations remained unanswered. 17 years later, after the meetings of the special representatives appointed by the two countries with the aim of normalizing relations, the heads of state and government exchanged views on the phone.

Can more radical steps be taken in this process before the election?

Yes, they can be...