Does Donald Trump have a political future?

On January 13, Congress, a majority in which belongs to the Democrats (plus 10 Republicans), impeached D. Trump, accusing him of "inciting rebel"; 232 legislators (197 - against, 4 - abstained) supported this accusation.

On February 9, the US Senate, by a majority vote, recognized the impeachment process of the ex-president as consistent with the country's Constitution (50 Democrats + 6 Republicans).

Democrats deny the argument that the trial of the outgoing president is unconstitutional. The ex-president's lawyers reiterate that the process of impeachment of a "private person" is unconstitutional, and all of Trump's statements, which the Democrats regarded as a call for rebel, are protected by the First Amendment to the US Constitution.

The Senate will begin considering the accusation in the middle of the day on Wednesday. Democrats need the support of at least 17 Republican senators to approve impeachment, which is unlikely.

If senators approve Trump's impeachment, then a second vote will take place to ban the ex-president from holding public office in the future.

D. Trump refused to testify in the US Congress, and earlier his accusers noted that they have the right to regard the ex-president's possible refusal as evidence in favor of his guilt. Meanwhile, even incumbent President Joe Biden has doubts about the success of the impeachment. In this case, Congress may begin considering a resolution that would prohibit the outgoing president in the future from running for any elected office in the country.

After an unsuccessful attempt to remove Trump from office through the 25th Amendment to the Constitution, which provides for the transfer of presidential powers to the vice president when the first person is unable to fulfill his duties, the Democratic opponents, in fact, did their best to remove the 45th president from the field of American electoral politics. These actions are also aimed at undermining the positions of the Republican Party as a whole, due to which it can be argued that not only the United States is in a state of crisis, but also the existing political system. From this perspective, it can be argued that the political consequences will be for all parties and for the entire society, because American society is really split into two warring political camps.

According to a public opinion survey conducted by Axios/Ipsos, the Republicans and Democrats disagree with each other on almost all issues of the political agenda. Consensus was reached on only one issue: eight out of ten respondents from both camps believe that the US is close to collapse!

Trump has already announced that he will run in 2024, tried to create his own "Party of Patriots" in this regard, but then abandoned this idea, apparently deciding again to rely on the Republicans, whose moods are beginning to change. Republican leader in Congress Kevin McCarthy, who recently called on Trump to take responsibility for the attempt to storm the Capitol, held talks with the former president, during which both politicians promised to "work together to win the party in the 2022 midterm elections." To this end, a website called Trump's Majority has been launched to collect campaign donations. Another influential Republican, Jonathan Barnett, said: “We need each other. We need him, his advice and his constituents, but he cannot do without us either."

Because millions of people in the United States supporting Trump as a new personality in politics, he is likely to remain in the spotlight for a long time. It is noted that Trump intends to take an active part in the 2022 election campaign and has compiled a list of several dozen candidates for seats in Congress and Senate, whom he will support. A new poll by National Public Radio showed that 70% of his voters still believe he won the election.

The actions of the Democrats, of course, are governed by elementary political logic: to fix in the minds of voters the final fall of Trump, the end of his political career. The results of the survey are cited, according to which 56% of Americans wanted an early termination of Trump's powers, the majority of citizens (57% against 39%) do not believe that America has become “great again” after the presidency of D. Trump.  Forty six percent (46%) of respondents named Trump one of the worst US presidents in history, and 21% - one of the best. After the events in Washington, 30,000 Republican voters officially refused to support the party, moving to the Democratic camp.

Many analysts believe that a war has been going on in the United States for a long time between traditionalism and progressivism, and Trump is a supporter of the first trend, who believes that in the issue of the national identity of the population, the primacy belongs to the white, Christian nation. The results of the 2020 vote reject such an assessment imposed by the media by Democrats who consider Trump a racist. He received more votes from different ethnic groups than in 2016, according to polls, his support among the black population of the United States increased from 8% to 12%. According to the analytical organization Democracy Fund, 21% of African Americans under 45 were going to vote for Trump in October. In this regard, it is noted that Trump significantly improved the economic condition of the African American community, and the proportion of Trump supporters among Latin-American communities increased from 32% to 36% among men and from 25 to 28% among women. At the same time, only 58% of white men voted for him, while in the last elections this figure was 62%. During his reign, there was an economic boom, curtailed by a pandemic.

Meanwhile, the United States in the presidency of Joe Biden will face very difficult times of division and conflict. The main task will be at least to freeze the existing conflicts. Even the most staunch Republicans find Biden's goal of "becoming the president of all Americans" as impossible. It is believed that America was divided even before Trump came to power, and that is why he was elected president. The situation is unlikely to change, even if Congress takes away some of the presidential powers, taking more power into its own hands.

However, the expert community believes that Biden will not be able to improve greatly the situation, because in the race for the White House he was too busy trying to show how balanced he is in comparison with his opponent. By surrounding himself with representatives of the radical wing of the Democratic Party, Biden, according to experts, became their hostage, and his presidency could pass under the sign of confrontation with his own cabinet.

This happens when a new threat has arisen: today small groups of extremely wealthy people and the companies they lead, dictating the norms of law and morality, have a huge influence in the country. While the Democrats have used these powers heavily against Trump, they must now do away with them, as well as the monopoly-like tech companies that have turned hate, disinformation and conspiracy theories on social media and the Internet into profitable businesses.

However, before Trump, none of the parties was able to realize the accumulated problems of the United States, the fears of phobias of their population and integrate them into their political programs.

Experts say that in 2016, Trump managed to win the election because he picked up all the negative emotions of society and gave them the form of simple aggressive slogans. The upcoming midterm elections in the United States will show what the political future of Donald Trump will be. They will also reveal the validity of Democratic claims to power in a country that is experiencing some of the most dramatic events in its history.