Recent analyses suggest that in 2025, Russia and Ukraine may reach a peace agreement wherein Russia retains control over the occupied territories. The Financial Times forecasts that, prior to such negotiations, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump might adopt a tougher stance toward Russia, including threats of sanctions and increased military support for Ukraine, to encourage Moscow to engage in serious talks. Additionally, U.S. allies may advise Trump against immediately dismissing Ukraine's potential NATO membership during the initial negotiation stages.
The proposed deal could involve Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accepting Russia's de facto control over the occupied regions, without formal recognition, in exchange for European security guarantees supported by the United States. Concurrently, discussions about Ukraine joining NATO might be postponed.
It's important to note that these projections are speculative and depend on various geopolitical factors, including the policies of the incoming U.S. administration and the evolving dynamics between Russia and Ukraine. The situation remains fluid, and the actual outcomes may differ from current forecasts.
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