Russian Troops Suffer Heavy Losses on the Frontline, Threatening Future Operations

Russian military forces are facing significant setbacks on the battlefield, casting doubt on the sustainability of their ongoing offensive. According to a recent report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), mounting casualties and tactical deficiencies are undermining morale, particularly among Russia’s ultra-nationalist military bloggers, who have openly criticized what they describe as “meat-grinder” attacks.

The ISW highlighted that since October 2023, Russian troops have lost at least five divisions worth of armored vehicles and tanks in the Pokrovsk area alone. Despite efforts to concentrate substantial military hardware along key segments of the front, the depletion of Soviet-era tanks and armored vehicles, combined with limited production capacity, suggests that such losses are unsustainable in the long term.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin noted on October 31 that Russian casualties have reached approximately 1,200 per day, equating to about 36,000 per month. The scale of these losses raises questions about Russia’s ability to maintain its current pace of operations, especially in the absence of a new wave of forced mobilization.

Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged the growing manpower shortage during his speech at the Valdai Discussion Club on September 7. He pointed to the reliance on migrant labor to fill workforce gaps, as domestic recruitment efforts falter. According to the ISW, the Kremlin has resorted to pressuring migrants into enlisting in the army to compensate for battlefield attrition.

The ISW report warns: “The Russian army almost certainly cannot sustain daily losses of over 1,200 soldiers indefinitely, particularly as Putin seeks to avoid a new round of forced mobilization. Even if a large-scale draft were imposed, it would not address the core issue: balancing the demand for labor in industry with the need to replenish frontline units.”

Prominent Russian military bloggers, known as “voenkors,” have increasingly criticized the disproportionate losses suffered by infantry units. The ultra-nationalist community has expressed frustration over what they see as reckless disregard for soldiers’ lives, accusing the high command of employing uncoordinated and ineffective tactics.

A former instructor from the “Storm-Z” unit, who now blogs anonymously, lamented on November 8 that training assault troops takes at least six months, yet commanders treat them as expendable, primarily tasked with “catching drones and shrapnel.” He described the high infantry casualties as a result of successive small-scale assault waves, which he characterized as “foolish” and “disorganized.” According to him, recent Russian gains have been “disproportionate to the human and material resources expended.”

The ISW noted that the military blogger community recently voiced concerns over incidents where drone operators were ordered into direct assault roles as a form of punishment. Analysts argue that the continued use of poorly trained personnel in high-casualty “meat-grinder” tactics is unlikely to yield significant progress and may further erode the support of these influential nationalist commentators. The Kremlin’s sensitivity to criticism from this community could influence future military and strategic decisions.

Key Takeaways from ISW’s November 9 Report:

Russian forces have reportedly lost around 200 tanks and more than 650 armored vehicles, as well as approximately 80,000 personnel, while gaining control of about 1,500 square kilometers during intense operations in September and October 2024.

While Russian troops may gain tactical advantages if Ukrainian forces fail to halt their advances, they cannot sustain such high losses indefinitely for limited territorial gains.

The ongoing conflict is taking a severe toll on both military personnel and hardware, raising questions about the Kremlin’s ability to sustain its current strategy without significant changes in policy or tactics. As the war drags on, growing discontent among nationalist military commentators could become an additional domestic challenge for Putin, complicating his decision-making as winter approaches.

The escalating casualties and diminishing resources suggest that Moscow faces difficult choices ahead. Without a substantial shift in strategy, the losses could outpace the benefits of the offensive, potentially undermining broader military objectives.