Silence: which way will the relationship go?

Ankara's advantage in the UN-recognized part of Libya has silenced Moscow. Of course, there is also the role of the referendum, which "reset" the 20-year rule of President Putin, to which he was largely involved. However, it is necessary to analyze well the silence of a country like Russia, which still has strong imperial claims, in the ongoing processes in a region where there is a lot of interest and Russia is willing to do many things.

Analyzing the historical examples, it is possible to assume that the Russian state is either preparing to take important tactical steps in the region or is waiting for the steps to be taken by the countries interested in the North African part of the Mediterranean. Because Russia was planning to penetrate the region in 2016, when the nuclear ship "Admiral Kuznetsov" was sailing near the eastern shores of the Mediterranean (Syria).

Despite a UN arms embargo, while it was alleged since then that Russian mercenaries have entered Libya from Egypt, Moscow signed an agreement with Cairo in 2018 to re-lease the military airbase it used on the Soviet era in Egypt.

On the other hand, imitating the Western experience, Moscow has sent mercenaries to the regions it needs, and since 2014, it has deployed mercenaries in Donetsk, then in Syria and Libya. Despite close friendship and cooperation with the Russian president, Turkish president Erdoğan openly questioned the presence of Kremlin-controlled Wagner mercenaries in Libya in December 2019.

In fact, Mr. Erdoğan’s outspokenness was due to the cooperation agreement signed between Turkey and the UN-recognized government of Tripoli on November 26 in Istanbul. In other words, Turkey, trying to strengthen its legal presence in Libya, invited Moscow, which was there with Wagner, to withdraw from the region. However, Moscow responded to President Erdoğan’s warning by killing 57 Turkish soldiers in Idlib on February 27 (it was again reported that the case was committed by mercenaries). After the ceasefire reached during the Putin- Erdoğan meeting in the Kremlin on March 5, Turkey has already managed to send a significant part of its forces in the north-eastern part of Syria to Libya.

The legality of the agreement with the Tripoli government, the mercenaries sent to the region from Syria, as well as the use of modern weapons produced by Turkey, led to the collapse of the system established by Russia there. As a result, the Russian-backed Khalifa Haftar was forced to withdraw, and this time Egypt was pushed forward.

110 years ago, the Ottoman Empire used local tribes in Libya to block Italy and France, and now Egypt is trying to do so. However, the current situation shows that Turkey has gained a legal and military advantage both on the shores of Tripoli and in the Mediterranean. Russia seems calm, and the United Arab Emirates, which relies on its money, can do nothing but dog and pony show. However, the silence of Russia, which seeks to get a foothold in the Mediterranean and North Africa, in the process, raises some important questions. Let's write some of them:

• Did the Kremlin use different tactics and give preference to the Black Sea and Caspian Sea regions at this stage? Is the reason for the decision to hold emergency military exercises in the two seas and in the region between the two seas (July 17) to divert attention from the steps to be taken in Libya?
• Is Russia, which has not been able to establish its full dominance in Syria, afraid to face Turkey in Libya? Could this be due to the growing likelihood of US support for Turkey?
• It would be naive to think that Russia does not want to return to Libya. So what form will this return take: through Khalifa Haftar, a graduate of the Frunze Security Academy, or through Wagner, or directly through his own military?

In any case, Russia's silence on this issue should not be seen as a good sign.

Mayis Alizade