Frequently Changing Confusing Statistics, Declining Strategic Output

The State Statistics Committee (SSC) said a few days ago that the mass sowing of autumn crops for the 2021 harvest is nearing completion and as of December 24, 2020, the country has 976,730.7 hectares of grain and green fodder. reported that the plants were sown. It was noted in the report that 98.5 percent or 962,402.7 hectares of the sown area were autumn crops for grain, of which 594,896.6 hectares were wheat, 367,230.1 hectares were barley and 276.0 hectares were rye. It was also noted that compared to the same period last year, the sown area of ​​autumn crops for grain decreased by 4.8 percent, including the sown area of ​​wheat by 7.2 percent, barley by 0.6 percent, and rye by 21.1 percent. Thus, the area under winter wheat for 2021 decreased by 41.3 thousand hectares compared to the previous year. I should note that the sowing of cereals and legumes in the country is carried out mainly in the autumn (Table 1).

Table 1. Sown area of ​​cereals and legumes (thousand hectares). Source - State Statistics Committee (SSC)      

Unfortunately, the statistics provided by the SSC on the sown areas of autumn cereals and legumes change several times a year, sometimes increasing or decreasing. Thus, on December 24, 2019, the SSC reported on the sowing of autumn grain for 1,002,745.5 hectares for the 2020 harvest. Of this, 636,217 hectares were wheat, 366,178.5 hectares were barley and the rest were other crops.

 Speaking at a meeting on the socio-economic results of the first quarter of 2020 in April 2020, Minister of Agriculture Inam Karimov said: “More than 1 million hectares of grain have been planted in the country for 2020. 641,000 hectares of sown areas are wheat, 369,000 hectares are barley (only 1 million 10 thousand hectares - V.M.). Contrary to the information provided by the SSC, in his speech, the Minister noted that for 2020 the sown area of ​​wheat is more than 5,000 hectares, and barley - more than 3,000 hectares. Another information provided by the SSC to the press states that according to the results of the strict registration of sown areas as of June 1 of the current year (2020 - VM), 1002.7 thousand hectares or 61% of the sown area in the country are grain and The sown areas of cereals and legumes. According to the report, 598.2 thousand hectares of cereals and legumes planted on 1002.7 thousand hectares were wheat, 347.9 thousand hectares were barley and the rest were other cereals. In this report, in contrast to the information previously provided by the SSC, we see that the area of ​​wheat decreased by 38,000 hectares, and the area of ​​barley - by 18.2 thousand hectares. Finally, SSC announces that the harvest of cereals and legumes is nearing completion on August 13, 2020, and that autumn and spring cereals and legumes (excluding corn) are scheduled to be harvested by August 10, 2020, according to operative information. The area covered is 968.1 thousand hectares.

Thus, we see that the information provided by the SSC is confusing and contradictory. It is still unknown how many areas will be sown in autumn and spring cereals and legumes in 2020. Thus, although the SSC reported that autumn crops were sown on 1,002,700 hectares for the 2020 harvest by December 24, 2019, the Minister of Agriculture said that 1,010,200 hectares (641,000 hectares) were sown. hectares of wheat, 369 thousand hectares of barley). In addition, SSC did not provide any information about the sowing of cereals and legumes in the spring. According to the Committee (August 10, 2020), the area to be harvested for autumn and spring cereals and legumes (excluding corn) is 968.1 thousand hectares. In other words, the SSC reduced the previously declared sown area by at least 34.6 thousand hectares without any justification.

Table 2. Autumn crops for grain and green fodder

I should also note that on June 13, 2020, the website of the Ministry of Agriculture reported that in 2020, 1010,218 hectares of autumn grain was planted in Azerbaijan, of which 640,977.6 hectares were wheat and 369,240.4 hectares were barley. (1) After that, how does the SSC disseminate information that the area "intended for harvesting of autumn and spring cereals and legumes (excluding corn)" is 968.1 thousand hectares? In fact, if we take into account the area under paddy, rice, legumes and other cereals, the area under cereals and legumes should have been more than 1 million 30 thousand hectares. How did it happen that the area of ​​the sown areas was suddenly reduced by more than 60,000 hectares? According to official data, 67,400 hectares of autumn crops have been completely destroyed this year. Does this mean that so much land has been removed from the total sown area? How did this happen? I think that the SSC should clarify this issue.

 Although 2020 is over and the grain harvest ended 5 months ago, it is still not possible to get accurate information on wheat and barley crops and crop production. Although, according to the information released by SSC, “2903.6 thousand tons of products were collected from the fields, the productivity was equal to 30.7 quintals. 1860.2 thousand tons or 64.1 percent of the product was wheat, 1018.7 thousand tons (35.1 percent) was barley, and 24.7 thousand tons (0.8 percent) was other cereals and legumes. Taking into account the information provided on the sown area and production indicators of grain during this year, different results are obtained in terms of productivity. Thus, 1860.2 thousand tons of wheat was obtained from 640977.6 hectares, which means a yield of 29 quintals per hectare. 1018.7 thousand tons of barley was harvested from 369 thousand hectares. This means that an average of 27.5 quintals of barley was harvested per hectare. Unfortunately, information on the productivity of other cereals and legumes has not yet been released. Nevertheless, it is clear that there is a serious decline in grain production this year. Compared to the previous year, wheat production decreased by 311,000 tons this year. In 2020, wheat production, which is the main food product and ranks first in the country in terms of sown area, is projected at 2,210,000 tons. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, citing the state budget envelope for 2020, in 2020, Azerbaijan was expected to produce 2,210,000 tons of wheat. According to the SSC, this year's wheat production amounted to 1 million 860.2 thousand tons. This is 350,000 tons, or 18.8% less than planned for 2020. In 2020, compared to 2019, wheat production decreased by 311.3 thousand tons, or 16.7%. I must also note that the production of wheat, the main food product, is not sustainable. While in 2009 the initial weight was 2131.5 thousand tons of wheat production, in the following 2010 production decreased by 38.7% to 1308.9 thousand tons. Although wheat production reached 1892.2 thousand tons in 2013, in 2014 the production decreased by 23.4% and amounted to 1449.0 thousand tons. In 2019, wheat production in initial weight was 2171.5 thousand tons, while in 2020 production decreased by 14.3 percent to 1860.2 thousand tons (Diagram 1).

Diagram 1. Wheat production (initial weight), for all economic categories. Source – SSC

According to the SSC, in 2020, compared to the same period in 2019, the production of cereals and legumes (including corn) decreased by 8.3 percent.

While Azerbaijan has very favorable conditions for the production of competitive food wheat, the country is able to meet a small part of its demand for this strategic product (31% in 2019) through domestic production. Imagine that in 2019, the country imported 1 million 584 thousand tons (up to 69% of demand) of wheat worth $ 340.5 million (578 million manat).

As mentioned earlier, the lack of quality seeds and irrigation water in grain growing creates very serious problems in the development of the sector. Today, grain farmers are not offered quality seed material. Taking advantage of the situation, traders sell grain to farmers at high prices as seed materials by obtaining fake quality documents for their products. This leads to a decrease in productivity and product quality. The hard-earned harvest of farmers does not meet the standard of food wheat. The villagers are forced to use their produce as fodder for livestock.

 The government must take concrete steps to address the problems in the grain sector. Conditions must be created for entrepreneurs who can afford to meet the needs of agricultural producers for irrigation water, machinery, quality tissue, mineral fertilizers, pesticides and other means of production in a timely manner. The government should also develop a mechanism for granting subsidies from the state budget to farmers engaged in grain production, not by the size of arable land, but by commodity production.

Vahid Magerramov

[1] https://musavat.com/news/aqrar-sahede-veziyyet-sigorta-mexanizmi-ise-salinir_727912.html

[2]https://agro.gov.az/az/news/taxil-sahelerinin-18-3-faizinde-bicin-yekunlasib