A picture of the year of peace and confidence

Below-cited are round anniversaries of 2021 to include as follows:

55 years of world’s first unmanned station landing on Moon (February 3, 1966) and 60-anniversary of the first space flight (April 12, 1961).

300 years of the foundation of the Russian Empire (November 2, 1721, Peter the Great).

75 years of the opening of the First Session of the UN General Assembly (January 1, 1946),

75 years of the establishment of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), a UN specialized institution for education, science and culture (November 16, 1946) and 75 years of the establishment of the UNICEF (United Nations Children’s Fund, December 11, 1946).

1700 years of the oldest decree of Emperor Constantine the Great who proclaimed Sunday as day off (March 7, 321).

125 years of the opening of the first Olympic Games (April 6, 1896).

250 years of the adoption of the Declaration of Independence of the United States of America (July 4, 1776).

Azerbaijan will celebrate an anniversary of the new holiday – Victory Day (November 8).

It ought to be noted that upcoming events are closely connected with the last and forthcoming elections:

In the spotlight is a forthcoming inauguration of the 46^th President of the United States, Joe Biden. Confrontation between Washington and Beijing/Kremlin is expected to grow; this notwithstanding, prolongation of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (SART-3) expires on February 5, 2021). Also, the USA is expected to join the Joint Comprehension Plan of Actions on the Iranian Nuclear Program, refusal from the Trump-adopted model of the Palestinian-Israeli settlement, start of new talks over the Paris Climate Agreement. Beyond any doubt, the pinnacle event is a mutual deterrence between the USA and China.

When it comes to Europe, major intrigue of the forthcoming elections to German Bundestag (September 26, 2021) lies in a decision of Chancellor Angela Merkel to finish her political career that started as far back as in 2005. The EU is expected to face new difficulties after Merkel’s resignation. Besides, the political arena of Europe will face substitution of political heavy hitters for random and weak politicians. An eloquent testimony to the above is the political stardom of France. Note that the process is a general tendency worldwide.

It should be added that Great Britain’s unfortunate exit from the European Union – Brexit has come to an end. Very few people would remember that this country’s entry into the EU was also characterized with great difficulties and blocked by many EU members. From now on Great Britain and the EU have agreed on freedom of border control-based freight traffic and air travel; free visa-free movement of people is ceased. It is not unlikely that Brexit might lead to spate of separatist sentiments in Great Britain, particularly in Scotland mulling a need in a new referendum on independence.

Account has to be taken of Presidential elections in Iran (June 18) and Syria (presumably in summer). A period of the rule of reformers in Iran is coming to an end to be replaced by conservatives, including a well-known Iranian ex-President, Mahmud Ahmadinejad.

As for Bashir Assad-led Syria (since 2000), recognition of the elections by western countries is dependent upon a preliminary political reform pointing the way to a numerous dissenting opposition.

The same is true of political situation in Belarus with its unabated mass protests against rigged Presidential election. In the thick of protests А. Lukashenko promised to carry out the constitution reform, and since then both the authorities and the opposition are remaining in the dark concerning amendments to the Basic Law. There is an interesting format in Belarus: a general meeting is held twice a decade attended by representatives of the Belarus government and other branches of power, heads and staff members of enterprises, workers of science and art. A regular meeting (twice a decade) is scheduled to take place in January-February this year. The probability remains that this meeting will give an answer to country’s future prospects.

It has to be kept in mind that this year remains to be the most unpredictable since signing of the trilateral agreement following the results of the Second Karabakh War and affecting the vital interests of all three states of South Caucasus.

Of great interest are forthcoming events in Russia becoming more and more involved in internal processes of all CIS member-countries. Suffice it to mention major elections to the State Duma (single voting day on August 19, 2021) to be supposedly accompanied by mass protests. Note that these expectations are enforced by visible changes in the structure of political power: earlier self-absorbed Putin’s system began actively transforming. «Earlier many persons inside the system were afraid of showing initiative and making a step without securing approval of Putin. But today the inactivity is fraught with risks, so those involved in the matter have to act openly and pointedly. As a consequence, Putin’s ordinary disengagement has been supplemented with by increased activity of the apparatus.

It was no mere coincidence that President began willingly delegating major issues of public government – work of his administration, struggle against opposition – to the Federal Security Service; economy – to the government; pandemic – to the governors. Suffice it to mention that the year 2020 proved to be the first during the Putin’s rule when the strong government was empowered to adopt pivotal decisions», says Tatyana Stanovaya (A life under collective Putin. What’s in store of 2021 for the Russian regime and society - December 31, 2020, the Carnegie Moscow Center).

Results of interesting developments in Russia and Kremlin-initiated actions will be available in the end of the present year. It’d be appropriate to remind that the new US authorities are going to wear down Russia with local conflicts across its perimeter. It is obvious that Washington’s political line will of selective nature to adapt a conflict to a prefabricated plan. In this connection Baku is concerned about a political paradigm in case of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. A single respite of Azerbaijan in the issue goes back to the US official attitude to Turkey.

As a whole, this year’s political intrigue seems to be rather contradictory within the framework of regional and global conflicts. Inference should be drawn that the current UN-proclaimed agenda – the year of peace and confidence – is sure to be far from its implementation.

The only thing that unites the mankind today is the struggle against coronavirus. By the way, the situation is far from solidarity in terms of vaccination wars, especially as it remains unclear whether vaccination is required in reality or admissible as a whole.  Suffice it to mention that in the beginning of the pandemic and today there are increased number of conspirological theories of human origin of coronavirus aimed at reducing «unproductive part of mankind».

It is obvious that new pandemic-related realities are accompanied by reforms and even revolutions in social, political, economic and spiritual life of mankind.

Forecasts about world’s stepped-up transition to online-education are not surprising. In the meanwhile, it would lead to essential reduction of schools, universities, other educational institutions. Next victims of the pandemic are companies, scientific-research institutions, other organizations which «suddenly» realize that new circumstances are accompanied by new realities, not wholly negative, calling for a new style in human life.

It should be remembered that a forthcoming reality is set to fundamentally change our consumer learnings and consumption industry, especially as there is a tendency toward localism: selection of the best place for permanent residency and appropriate conditions.

It must be said that there are lots of futurists believing that in 5-7 years the world will turn to globalization and urbanization processes, while, in the meantime, the influence of national states will grow to act as big insurance companies contributing to the survival of major branches сof production. However, these forecasts fail to take into account the fact that impetuously developing digitalization leads to the job slashing with humans, not machinery involved.

As a result, some professional occupations will be more in demand while others will become ineffective from economy standpoint.

To sum up, while mankind has been engaged in forecasting far-away prospects of the new life, the radical transformation has become firmly established, so responses to growing risks and threats lagged far behind. It is surprising that the retardation covered the political, economic, social and spiritual life of mankind.

Ali Abasov