American military analyst: Deadly fighting in Karabakh underscores the risk of a broader war

News reports yesterday that two Azerbaijani civilians, one of which a toddler, lost their lives in deadly attack by Armenian forces, underscore the risk of a broader war, whether through miscalculation or accidental incidents, a senior American diplomat and military analyst, who recently returned back from the conflict region, told TURAN's Washington correspondent.

Baku accuses Yerevan of targeting civilians. Officials in Armenia say, however, they had returned fire, accusing the Azerbaijani side of deploying weapons near civilians.

Making the developments more troubling and dramatic still, no long-term strategic policy seems to be guiding operational decisions both in Baku and Yerevan, the analyst, who met with Azeri and Armenian military officials following last year's escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh, said, on condition of anonymity.

Armenia, he said, inherited a much higher level of military culture from its Soviet period, had have long believed that the Azerbaijan's military capability was "nothing to be proud of" while Azeris had been trying to demonstrate that they'd become much better effective modern military instrument and that they deserved more respect in the region.

After last year's escalations, however, Yerevan responded by reforming the nature of its own defense of structure by adding different reactive mechanisms, "because they found out that they were targeted by Israeli provided drones, followed with artillery and air strikes from Azerbaijani side."

Now, he added, learning from last year's experience, military officials both in Yerevan and Baku have been focusing on war preparations, highlighting potential targets on the other side, including civilian targets.

"This is horrifying," he added. "Especially, given the fact that in both countries decision-making process relies in the hands of a very small number of men and it's really hard to penetrate what their real thinking is beside their actual rhetoric."

A.Raufoglu

Washington, D.C.