Armenia-Azerbaijan: U.S. Intel Predicts 'Tense and Occasionally Volatile" Relations In Absence Of Peace Treaty

Relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan "are likely to remain tense and occasionally volatile in the absence of a peace treaty," the U.S. Intelligence community predicts, TURAN's Washington correspondent reports.

Leaders of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, CIA, FBI, Defense Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency presented an annual summary of global risks to the Congress on Wednesday.

Speaking on Armenia-Azerbaijan, the authors mentioned the proximity of military forces at the interstate border, the lack of a cease-fire enforcement mechanism, and "Azerbaijan’s readiness to use calibrated military pressure to advance its goals in talks with Armenia."

"The continued presence of military forces in close proximity along the delimited border elevates the risk of armed confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, although such confrontations are likely to be limited in duration and intensity," reads the report.

The report reminds that since May 2021, military clashes have occurred regularly at the interstate border and around the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The most intense flare-up took place in September 2022, when Azerbaijani forces launched a coordinated attack at multiple locations along the border, seizing some Armenian territory and resulting in nearly 300 military deaths.

"Peace talks have made some progress, but the most challenging issues—related to state borders and the future of Nagorno-Karabakh—are far from being resolved," reads the report.

The new report allows the U.S. lawmakers to raise questions and concerns over assessments and priorities on work that is largely conducted in secret.

On Russia-Ukraine, the intelligence community made it clear that it does not foresee Putin's 's military recovering enough this year to make major territorial gains, but Putin "most likely calculates that time works in his favor, and that prolonging the war — including with potential pauses in the fighting — may be his best remaining pathway to eventually securing Russia's strategic interests in Ukraine, even if it takes years".

The authors also mention that China’s aims to be East Asia’s top power and a major world player will “probably” be hindered by “an aging population, high levels of corporate debt, economic inequality” and resistance to Beijing’s designs on Taiwan.

While the cyber threats from China largely remained the same compared to last year, the new assessment added a worrying line: “If Beijing feared that a major conflict with the United States were imminent, it almost certainly would consider undertaking aggressive cyber operations”

Alex Raufoglu