Experts Propose Different Theories Regarding Putin’s Visit to Baku

On August 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin will begin his visit to Baku.During the two-day state visit to Azerbaijan, the two presidents will discuss interstate and international relations, and bilateral documents will be signed. This is all that official sources have disclosed about the visit's agenda. It seems that unknown agreements have already been reached in advance, with Baku left to finalize the signing of these documents.

Sources in Moscow are also concise. Chairman of the State Duma's Committee on International Affairs Leonid Slutsky only mentioned the constantly expanding prospects for cooperation between the countries “in all spheres – economic, political, and humanitarian. Russia and Azerbaijan remain firm supporters of the principles of building a multipolar world. And in many matters of the current international agenda, our positions coincide,” said Slutsky.

What political agenda is Putin bringing to Azerbaijan? In Azerbaijan, political figures express concern over the visit. Chairman of the Supreme Majlis of the Popular Front Party, Nureddin Mamedli, draws attention to the increased shelling of Azerbaijani military positions in Nakhchivan, which prompted a stern response from Azerbaijan's Ministry of Defense, reminding the Armenians of the lessons from the 44-day war. Mamedli speculates that the tensions might be intentionally escalated by Russia to prevent a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia from being signed.

According to the head of the "Atlas" Analytical Center, Elkhan Shahinoglu, Putin needs new military forces to reclaim the Kursk region, which is currently occupied by the Ukrainian army. To achieve this, the Kremlin might close the military base in Armenian Gyumri and redeploy soldiers from there to the Ukrainian front. “Putin's most important task now is to preserve Russia’s territorial integrity and restore his weakened image,” the political analyst believes. He suggests that coordination with Azerbaijan’s president is crucial for Putin’s plan.

The head of the Southern Caucasus Research Center, Farhad Mamedov, notes that after the withdrawal of the Russian peacekeeping contingent from Azerbaijan, the Karabakh settlement issue has faded, with Russia remaining only a party to the trilateral intergovernmental commission on the unblocking of communications. However, the unblocking process has not advanced due to Armenia’s reluctance to grant Russia additional roles in Armenia, and Pashinyan’s government has not offered any solutions.

Mamedov further writes on social media:

• In terms of political dialogue/security and humanitarian cooperation, Baku and Moscow enjoy trusting relations at the leadership level, with continuous dialogue and mutual understanding. Azerbaijan has not changed its position in relations with Russia, and compared to Russia's relations with other countries in the region, Azerbaijan remains Russia’s most predictable partner in the area.

In the economy, trade turnover is growing, a natural increase, not a situational one. Promising areas include the establishment of production facilities by Russian companies in Azerbaijan, gas exports, and transport.

Baku is accused of re-exporting Russian gas to Europe. However, after leaks in European media revealed that the EU is interested in exporting gas from Azerbaijan to Ukraine, it effectively legitimizes this re-export, which previously did not exist.

The North-South transport corridor is an important issue, and there are no problems between Baku and Moscow on this topic. The main obstacle lies with Iran, and it seems that Russia is managing to resolve problematic aspects with the Iranian side. Additionally, the China-Russia-Azerbaijan route heading south or west may also gain importance.

At the global level, topics such as Azerbaijan’s potential BRICS membership, enhancing its status within the SCO, and of course, COP29, are relevant.

The visit is particularly noteworthy in the context of Russia's confrontation with the West and the war in Ukraine. Before the war, Baku served as a venue for meetings between Russian and U.S./NATO military officials. Azerbaijan’s president is trusted by both Russian and Ukrainian leadership. Under current conditions, dialogue may be inappropriate, but the actions on the front line are driven by the desire to strengthen positions ahead of negotiations expected later this year.