Helsinki Commission's briefing: Risks of escalation in Karabakh "remain higher than ever"

Washington/19.10.17/Turan: Nearly 1.5 year after deadly clashes erupted between Azerbaijan and Armenia, diplomats and analysts who closely observe the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, are said that the risks of escalation remain "higher than ever" and that it's time for both sides to prepare their populations for peace, not war." "This is not a frozen conflict, this is thawed and very dangerous," said Carey Cavanaugh, former U.S. Co-Chair of the OSCE Minsk Group (1999-2001), during a congressional briefing held by the U.S. Helsinki Commission on Wednesday, October 19, Turan's Washington correspondent reports. The U.S., along with France and Russia, has long been co-chairing the Minsk Group in trying to reach a deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia that would end a two decades-old conflict. Yet in the past 25 years have brought little progress.

"Conflict has changed the dynamic over time; so has the mediation process," explained Cavanaugh.

Despite strained relations between the US and Russia, Nagorno-Karabakh "is area where [moderators] have worked closely and collaboratively," added James Warlick, another former top US, envoy (2013-2016), currently a partner and senior policy advisor with Russian firm Egorov Puginsky Afanasiev & Partners. For the EU, the last years' escalation was "the unexpected and dangerous wake-up call," said International Crisis Group's Magdalena Grono. "The [April] war showed conflict with serious consequences." According to her, it is essential that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict continues to dispel risks of escalation. "The lack of political and military contact between Armenia and Azerbaijan is very dangerous," she added. "Escalation of the conflict could have major regional implications." In the meantime, added Amb. Warlock, benefits of peace would certainly be high for all sides: IDPs will, return their homes.

A.Raufoglu

Washington. D.C.