Cargo planes at the Khmeimim airbase AFP PHOTO / SATELLITE IMAGE ©2024 MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES

Cargo planes at the Khmeimim airbase AFP PHOTO / SATELLITE IMAGE ©2024 MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES

Russia appears to be withdrawing military forces from Syria, with satellite images revealing the arrival of cargo planes at its Khmeimim airbase and signs of equipment being dismantled, analysts said on Thursday.

Satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies and Planet Labs shows two An-124 cargo planes—the world’s largest, capable of carrying up to 150 tons—along with three Il-76 transport planes, and smaller aircraft, including three An-32 and one An-72, stationed at Khmeimim. The Washington Post reported that some aircraft had their nose compartments open, suggesting heavy equipment was being prepared for transport.

The images also show Russian forces dismantling a Ka-52 attack helicopter, while parts of an S-400 anti-aircraft missile system were identified nearby, seemingly ready for shipment to Russia.

Russian military movements toward Khmeimim have been documented extensively on social media, with pro-Russian "Z-bloggers" posting videos of military columns heading for the airbase. In one video, a passerby asks soldiers where they are going, to which they reply, "to Russia."

Meanwhile, Maxar released images of Russian naval vessels leaving Syria's Mediterranean coast, consistent with German media reports citing the German Ministry of Defense.

Despite the withdrawals, Russia remains in talks with the new Syrian authorities over maintaining its military bases, state news agency TASS reported, quoting unnamed sources. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently suggested the withdrawal may be tactical, with equipment and materials being temporarily returned to Russia.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan echoed this view, noting that the "continued presence of Russian military bases in Syria will depend on negotiations with the new government."

Russia’s two key military installations in Syria—Khmeimim airbase and Tartus naval base—play significant strategic roles, with Tartus being Russia's only naval base in the Mediterranean.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed ongoing discussions with Damascus during a press briefing on Thursday. "There is an understanding between Moscow and the Syrian leadership, but the situation remains fluid due to the region's instability," Peskov said.

European Union and Middle Eastern sources told Bloomberg that while an "informal understanding" exists between Russia and Syria, the long-term status of the bases remains uncertain amid broader geopolitical shifts.

The developments mark a significant adjustment in Russia’s military presence in Syria, where it has played a central role since its intervention in the civil war in 2015, tipping the balance in favor of President Bashar al-Assad.

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