Trump’s Victory Interpreted in Azerbaijan...

Republican Donald Trump has been elected the 47th President of the United States. Many countries around the world have already begun congratulating him on this achievement.

The U.S. election, like in other parts of the world, has been closely followed in Azerbaijan. Rasim Musabeyov, a member of the Milli Majlis’s Committee on International Relations and Interparliamentary Affairs, told Turan that the Democratic administration had been attentive to developments in the South Caucasus, including the Armenia-Azerbaijan issue: "They took initiatives, provided recommendations, and organized meetings. Hearings were held in Congress at the initiative of the Democrats."

According to Musabeyov, the Republicans will likely keep their distance on these issues: "This is positive because what we have achieved so far has been done on a bilateral basis."

Musabeyov noted that it’s not just about Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, but also U.S.-Russia relations. "We are neighbors with Russia. There’s also the issue of Iran. If tensions escalate there, this will have repercussions for Azerbaijan and our region."

Seymur Hazi, Deputy Chair of the opposition Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan (PFPA), told Radio Azadliq that he does not share the excessively alarmist opinions circulating on social media and in the media: "Changes in the U.S. administration may influence policy in certain ways, but this will impact methods, not the strategic approach. The West, as a whole, cannot accept Ukraine’s defeat. This has become a critical issue for America."

Hazi believes that the U.S. approach to human rights in Azerbaijan will not change: "If the U.S. were represented by a single person, we could say the strategy would shift. However, there is Congress, and members from both parties address human rights issues."

He argues that some expectations surrounding Trump’s victory are misguided: "The Azerbaijani government’s euphoria that ‘Trump will come and everything will improve’ is misplaced. Similarly, civil society activists’ concerns that ‘Trump’s arrival will bring negative outcomes’ are unfounded. Politics is not a one-day matter. We can recall how the Trump administration influenced the Azerbaijani government, imposed sanctions on Russia and Iran. We need a comprehensive view of the situation."

Political commentator Nasimi Mammadli also sees little change on the horizon: "There are no conceptual disagreements in the U.S. regarding the region. Although there are different approaches from the parties towards Russia and Iran, these two major states in our region directly affect us. If Trump’s victory leads to a tougher stance on Iran, this will impact us. Additionally, the election results will have a greater effect on the Russia-Ukraine war. But I don’t anticipate significant issues regarding the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict."

On February 24, 2022, Russia renewed its aggression against Ukraine, following its annexation of Crimea six years earlier, which had resulted in sanctions. After the new conflict, the West and several countries expanded sanctions against Russia.

Mammadli further recalled that the 44-day war happened under Trump’s administration: "During Biden’s administration, steps have been taken towards peace. Therefore, I don’t foresee any negative impacts from the election results on the peace process. In particular, China and the Middle East will be more of a priority for the Republicans."

The expert also believes that democracy and human rights issues will not be sidelined: "This is a strategic political line for the U.S. During Trump’s first term, the human rights situation in Azerbaijan was comparatively more positive. I believe that Trump’s re-election may lead to some positive steps regarding political prisoners and human rights in Azerbaijan."