Ukraine's Intelligence Reports Deployment of North Korean Troops by Russia Near Ukraine

In late October, Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) reported that Russia has deployed over 7,000 North Korean soldiers to areas near Ukraine, transported by at least 28 military flights. According to Ukrainian sources, these DPRK troops are equipped with Russian-supplied weapons, including 60mm mortars, AK-12 rifles, PKK/PKM machine guns, SVD sniper rifles, Phoenix anti-tank missiles, and RPG-7 rocket launchers. They have also received night vision devices, thermal imagers, and other specialized gear.

The training of these forces has reportedly been ongoing at five Russian military training grounds. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggested that Russia aims to bolster its offensive with North Korean manpower, partially alleviating internal manpower shortages for the Russian Armed Forces.

Analysts at the ISW caution that North Korea’s direct involvement may have significant repercussions beyond Ukraine. The participation of DPRK forces could impact the Korean peninsula's stability and the broader Asia-Pacific region, the ISW report states. The Russian-North Korean partnership reflects a growing strategic alignment, which may intensify regional security tensions, according to experts.

Despite North Korea’s denial of deploying troops to Ukraine, the ISW report highlights that North Korean soldiers have already been observed in Russia's Kursk region, joining Russian forces in support of their military operations. The report suggests that Pyongyang may use this opportunity to gain combat experience in modern warfare, testing new doctrines and equipment in preparation for potential conflicts, particularly on the Korean peninsula.

A recent Russian-North Korean defense agreement could have implications for North Korea's military ambitions, including strengthening its nuclear weapons program. In return for its involvement, Pyongyang may be seeking Russian security assurances in the event of a regional conflict, potentially bolstering its stance against South Korea.

The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry has warned that North Korean forces may face challenges on the battlefield, such as language barriers. Estonian intelligence similarly cautions that DPRK troops are likely to sustain significant casualties and may have limited impact on the broader conflict in Ukraine.

The ISW notes that Pyongyang’s alignment with Moscow could be part of a strategy to reduce dependency on China, thus shifting the regional power dynamics in the Asia-Pacific. The potential decline in Beijing’s influence over North Korea could destabilize the Korean peninsula, heightening security risks across the region.