Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan
Baku/20.05.22/Turan: The meeting in Brussels between Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan, announced for May 22, mediated by Charles Michel, will be the third in a similar format over the past six months. The agenda of the meeting is not disclosed, but the statements of the parties on the eve of the meeting allow us to draw certain conclusions.
Thus, Baku accused Yerevan of disrupting two meetings on the issues of border delimitation, the last of which was to be held on May 16-17 in Moscow. Yerevan acknowledged the refusal to meet, explaining this by technical reasons.
At the same time, official Yerevan continues to persistently demand that the issue of the status of Karabakh and the security of the Armenian population living there be included in the agenda of negotiations.
Moscow, which patronized the May 16-17 meeting, reacts rather reservedly to Yerevan's refusal to start negotiations. In contrast to previous times, official Baku also assessed Yerevan's refusal rather reservedly, stating only "concern".
It can be assumed that Baku does not want to aggravate the situation and abandon the tactics of constant pressure on Yerevan. But there must be good reasons for this. Perhaps this is due to the understanding that if Pashinyan is “squeezed”, then a change of power will take place in Armenia. The new leadership of Armenia will be more radical and will rely on military revenge and at least abandon the agreements on November 10, 2020, the main of which is the recognition of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.
A new war will make it impossible to implement many projects to restore the liberated territories and will make it necessary to search for new agreements with Moscow, whose peacekeepers are stationed in Karabakh.
On the other hand, Western countries do not hide their understanding of Yerevan's demands to grant the Armenians of Karabakh some kind of status, which forces Baku to take into account the opinions of Washington and Brussels.
Another factor influencing the overall situation was the war in Ukraine. The apparent weakening of Russia's positions and the consolidation of the collective West speaks of the disappearance of fear of Moscow and its military potential. The demonstrative refusal of the US and France to cooperate with Russia in the OSCE Minsk Group is the best evidence of the decline in Moscow's authority.
This whole complex alignment, the changed geopolitical situation force Baku and Yerevan to balance on the brink. However, both sides will sooner or later have to take a decisive step, and possibly go for broke. In this situation, cold calculation, political will and far-sightedness will be of decisive importance. --02B--
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