Why Did Azerbaijanis in Georgia Vote for the Government?

In Georgia’s parliamentary elections, the ruling "Georgian Dream" party achieved a significant majority in areas with large Armenian and Azerbaijani populations: Akhalkalaki – 88%, Ninotsminda – 90%, Marneuli – 80%, Bolnisi – 81%, Tetritskaro – 68.6%, Dmanisi – 76.4%, Tsalka – 69.3%, and Gardabani – 70.8%. Footage of ballot-stuffing in Marneuli circulated widely on social media in Georgia and beyond. Meanwhile, "Georgian Dream" lost in Tbilisi, where national minorities are few.

Nasimi Aliyev, a member of the election commission from the village of Gachagan in the Marneuli district, reported on X (formerly Twitter) that the ruling party had distributed money to Azerbaijanis in the provinces, essentially buying their votes. “They intimidated and blackmailed people, coming to their homes at night with money. Influence from Azerbaijan and Georgian Azerbaijanis living in Russia also played a role, as locals rely on remittances from Russia.”

Natik Jafarli, the head of the REAL party, observed that Azerbaijanis in Georgia tend to vote for whoever is in power. During Saakashvili’s era, his party received around 80% of the votes in Azerbaijani-populated areas. He cited several reasons for this pattern:

• Survival Strategy: Azerbaijani residents don’t want to sever ties with the party in power, seeing it as a strategy for survival.
• Language and Political Disengagement: Many lack proficiency in Georgian, are distant from political debates, and are not ideologically inclined toward any party. However, they tend to lean conservatively and thus align with "Georgian Dream."
• Respect for Saakashvili’s Legacy: There remains respect for Saakashvili, as he reduced police corruption and bribery, but since "Georgian Dream" has held power for 12 years, many feel there’s no going back. Propaganda also plays a role, with the idea that "if the opposition comes to power, there will be war," and that the current government defends traditional values against the West's promotion of minority rights.

Political analyst Shahin Jafarli argues that the Georgian elections highlight the difficulty of unseating ruling powers in countries with weak democratic institutions, where governments leverage administrative resources—particularly in former Soviet states under strong Russian influence.

“As for the geopolitical aspect, it’s essential to remember that the post-Soviet region is a zone of vital interest for Russia, whereas the West sees it as a peripheral region with certain interests. But while this rivalry is existential for Russia, it isn’t for the West, which views this region more as Europe’s periphery,” Jafarli wrote on X.