At the Crossroads of War and Diplomacy: Can Azerbaijan Deepen Ties With Ukraine Without Alienating Russia?

Ukraine has signed 10-year agreements with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar to export counter-drone weapons to these countries. In total, similar requests have been received from 11 countries in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, “plus we are gradually looking toward the Caucasus.” This was stated on April 20 by the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a telethon.

After a catastrophe that could have undermined relations, Azerbaijan and Russia are quietly rebuilding ties — not through large-scale political gestures, but through a more stable and less visible mechanism of trade.

When Prime Minister Inga Ruginene visited the capital of Azerbaijan, the focus was not on signed agreements — there were none — but on a deeper process: a reassessment of the role of small states in a shifting geopolitical architecture where energy, logistics, and security are increasingly intertwined.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to Moscow last week has triggered a new round of tensions in Armenian-Russian relations. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attempt to persuade Pashinyan to abandon rapprochement with the European Union and the United States failed, despite arguments presented by the Russian side. Pashinyan, according to his public statements, reaffirmed Armenia’s commitment to an independent foreign policy.