"Iran`s covert and overt supporters in the country continue to be a source of threat"

The tension between Iran and Azerbaijan is at the center of attention of the international media and the world in general. The tension lasting for more than a month, subsided at times, but did not stop.

In recent days, against the background of growing tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan, several accounts of the supporters of the IRGC (SEPAH Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps - Sepаh-e pаsdаrаn-e enqelab-e Eslаmi)) have appeared on social networks about the creation of the "Huseynchilar" resistance movement in Azerbaijan. ...

Iran continuously conducts military exercises on the border with Azerbaijan and in the Caspian Sea. The attitude of experts to these exercises is not unambiguous.

What are Iran's goals? What does Iran want to achieve from Azerbaijan? What can the tension between the two countries lead to?

Security expert Ilham Ismail answered ASTNA's questions on this topic.

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Question: Why doesn't Iran stop these actions? What is its purpose?

Answer: Iran's activities directed against us are nothing new. Since gaining independence, we have been under the gun of Iran. After Azerbaijan gained independence, its lands were under occupation for 30 years, and Iran was pleased with this situation. Weak Azerbaijan suited Iran. The victory in the 44-day war, the strengthening of Azerbaijan and the growth of its influence in the region, as well as the support provided by Turkey and Pakistan, friendly relations with Israel, irritate Iran. Iran sees that it no longer has influence in the Caucasus region, so it wants to use threats, opposing the interests of Azerbaijan, to change the situation in its favor and intends to justify these actions under various pretexts. Changing some details of Iran's policy towards Azerbaijan is possible, but this will not affect its essence. Iran is striving for Azerbaijan to be constantly under threat, wanting us to pursue a policy that meets its interests. The main goal of Iran is to abolish the secular, civilized state system in Azerbaijan and establish Sharia rule in it.

Question: In recent days, against the background of growing tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan, information about the creation of the “Huseynchilar” resistance movement in Azerbaijan appeared in several accounts of the IRGC supporters in social networks. Do you think that Iran, through such groups, can create a threat and organize a terrorist attack in Azerbaijan?

Answer: The activities of such organizations created by Iran, including Hezbollah, have always had, mainly, ideological and terrorist character. Most of these organizations performed these two functions at the same time - they were both engaged in the expansion of the Islamic Revolution of Iran to other Muslim countries, and in carrying out terrorist acts, reconnaissance and sabotage provocations. “Huseynchilar”, created in Syria in 2019, is an organization of the same type. The SEPAH-affiliated “Huseynchilar” flag depicts small arms in the foreground, indicating the terrorist orientation of this paramilitary group. The presence of the coat of arms and a map of Azerbaijan on the flag indicates that the group that the IRGC wanted to create (and possibly created) in our country is preparing not for an ideological struggle, but for terrorist activities.

Question: Iran claims that there are allegedly "terrorists" on the territory of Azerbaijan. Official Baku categorically denies these accusations. Can Iran, under this pretext, take any steps towards Azerbaijan?

Answer: Iran's insinuations about the presence of terrorists on the territory of Azerbaijan is a reason for intervention. However, the international community is well aware that the statements of Iran, which creates, supports and finances terrorism around the world, are a pretext. Why do we keep terrorist groups on our territory? Until now, Azerbaijan, not only directly, but also indirectly, has not been mentioned in the commission of any terrorist act. On the contrary, Azerbaijan has suffered from terrorism and radical religious groups of Armenia, including the pro-Iranian Shiite ones. There is a feeling that Iran intends to give a new impetus to this activity through “Huseynchilar”. Moreover, by persuading Israel, Iran wants to justify itself in the eyes of Islamic countries. Simply, Iran is unable to come to terms with the victory of Azerbaijan in the war and, ultimately, with its strengthening, the creation of a new reality in the South Caucasus, just as it could not reconcile with our independence for 30 years. Iran has no place in the new geopolitical situation in the region, and it does not want to come to terms with it. Iran cannot come to terms with the fact that it found itself offside against the background of the growing influence of Turkey and Russia in the region, and it well understands that the reason for this is precisely Azerbaijan, its victory. And since Iran avoids fighting the major states in the region, it has targeted us as a weak link.

Question: As soon as Azerbaijan starts conducting military exercises on its territory, Iran immediately starts exercises on the border with Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is conducting military exercises in the Caspian Sea, while Iran is trying to stage a show of force at sea. Supporting footage was circulated on social media. According to videos distributed on Telegram channels, the IRGC fleet has concentrated several thousand high-speed boats in the Caspian. What is Iran seeking? What is he afraid of, what is he worried about? Does he intend to constantly demonstrate strength to Azerbaijan?

Answer: Iran, which during 30 years of occupation did not conduct military exercises near our borders, pursues only one goal - to intimidate Azerbaijan. It does not matter on land, or on the sea - the goal is the same. Back in 2000, Iran demonstratively violated the airspace of Azerbaijan in the Caspian Sea. Then Turkish warplanes responded to Iran with a demonstration in the skies over Baku. Now Azerbaijan is not what it was 20 years ago. It has significantly strengthened and, moreover, has signed agreements on mutual military assistance with Turkey and Pakistan. Iran knows this, but it still hopes to intimidate us, to show strength. To this end, Iran tried to enlist the support of Russia, but its plans were unsuccessful. Foreign Minister Abdullahyan was so disappointed with the results of his visit to Moscow that, ignoring the reaction of the media, announced a visit to Azerbaijan and Armenia in order to improve relations. Of course, the normalization of relations between the two countries is a good thing, and in this matter, Iran's losses are great. It became obvious that until now Iran was hiding its true face and behaving insincerely. After recent actions, Iran has appeared in all its glory, and its supporters in Azerbaijan are aware of this. Secret and overt supporters of Iran in our country are still a source of threat, and it is important to carry out both legal and preventive and educational work against them.

Question: When and how can the tension between Azerbaijan and Iran end?

Answer: As long as the Islamic Republic of Iran exists, relations with Azerbaijan will be tense. It's just that this tension is now on the brink of a cold war, but there is also a lesser degree of tension. And the current cold war, albeit sluggishly, is approaching a phase of normal tension. Azerbaijan should be constantly fully armed with regard to all actions of Iran, both ideological and military. This is especially true of the country's security forces. As for the Caucasian Muslims Office and the Committee for Religious Affairs, they should step up their activities to raise awareness of the population in this direction. Iran is a divisive force. The unity of the Azerbaijani people with their state is an important factor for neutralizing this force. 

Kamran Mahmudov