"The separatist regime in Karabakh is Russia itself"

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Question: A few days ago, hundreds of trucks and buses got stuck in Armenia and Iran due to the fact that the Azerbaijani military blocked the Gorus-Gafan road in several places. The road was blocked near the villages of Shurnukh and Vorotan. The incident occurred after an Azerbaijani soldier was stabbed on the Gorus-Gafan road near the village of Ashagi Jibikli, Gubadli region. Do you think this is the reason for blocking the road or are there other reasons?

Answer: Uncertainty reigns throughout the entire length of the Azerbaijani-Armenian border. The parties cannot in a bilateral format settle the process of delimitation and demarcation of the borders established in Soviet times. And there are a number of reasons for this. There are two main reasons for this. First, Armenia does not recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and does not renounce territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Secondly, Russia is interested in maintaining such a controversial, complex and contradictory situation.

It is difficult to prove this, but I do not exclude that the direct executor or the ideological inspirer of provocations along the entire length of borders is Russia. At the same time, the continuation of Armenia's territorial claims to Azerbaijan has created great opportunities for Russia in this matter.

There have been and will be many incidents along the entire length of the border. The parties are looking for an excuse, an opportunity to harm each other. In fact, there are plenty of reasons and opportunities for this. The “hand” that stabbed an Azerbaijani soldier also acted in the interests of Russia. Russia will continue to use many tools to intensify the enmity between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

At the same time, the Armenian government is now interested in more active participation of Russia in the border region and in Karabakh. They want to entrust Russia with security issues in Karabakh and on the border, and do not hide their intention to oppose the Russian military to the Azerbaijani.

There are more serious reasons for the temporary blocking of the Gorus-Gafan road, although the formal reason for this was the stabbing of an Azerbaijani border guard. So far, points 4, 7 and 9 of the ceasefire declarations of November 10 have not been fulfilled. The Armenian armed forces are still on the territory of Azerbaijan. Temporarily displaced persons and refugees did not return to their former places of residence. All economic and transport links in the region have not been unblocked. Armenia is blocking transport links between the western regions of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. All these are factors that increase the tension.

Question: Why is the Gorus-Gafan road so important for Armenians?

Answer: This highway is one of the main economic "outlets" for Armenia. This route delivers goods to Armenia from the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. Zangezur region separates other regions of Azerbaijan from Nakhchivan and Turkey. The solution to the economic and demographic problems of this region is vital for Armenia. And from a political point of view, this highway is extremely important for Armenia. This is one of the most important keys to the security of Armenia. If this problem continues for a long time, it could cause an economic and political crisis in Armenia.

Question: What needs to be done to prevent similar incidents at the border? Can this territory be transferred to Russian peacekeepers? This is what the Armenian side wants. Why isn't Armenia building on its territory a new road connecting these regions, instead of seeking to transfer it under the control of Russian peacekeepers?

Answer: Such problems will not find their solution until a comprehensive peace agreement is signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Signing such a peace agreement in the near future is unrealistic. Both societies are not yet ready for peace. This takes time. Azerbaijan is more interested in lasting peace in the region than Armenia. Some forces with interests in the region, especially Russia, play a destructive role in this issue.

Armenia does not want to sign a big peace agreement. She hopes to delay this issue as much as possible and get big concessions in a more favorable international environment. She is interested in slowing down and freezing this process through local agreements.

The position of Armenia and Russia regarding the transfer of control over the border territories to Russia in accordance with the new "transitional agreement" completely coincide. As a member of the CSTO, the security of Armenia's borders is already under the control of Russia. But Armenia wants a special approach to border disputes with Azerbaijan so that Russia receives these powers in accordance with an international mandate.

However, this option does not suit Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan wants a final solution. This is the only way to prevent future wars. Otherwise, large-scale wars and heavy losses are inevitable in the future.

If a temporary settlement begins on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, then we must try to involve, along with Russia, Turkey in this process. The Russian-Turkish monitoring center can also obtain permission to monitor the border.

As for the construction of the new road, in fact, Armenia started the construction of the North-South corridor back in 2012. About 20% of the 490-kilometer highway is complete and construction of other complex sections is expected to continue with EU funding. This highway will connect Armenia and Georgia from the north and provide access to European countries through the Black Sea. From the south, it joins Iran and reaches the shores of the Persian Gulf.

Question: According to the reports of the Armenian media, the Azerbaijani military approached the Armenian police post near the Turshsu village of the Shusha region and demanded that the post be removed. This information gave rise to rumors that the Azerbaijanis are preparing to take control of the Lachin corridor. At the same time, it is said that there are restrictions on the supply of electricity and the Internet throughout the territory of Karabakh. What do you think is the reason for this tension?

Answer: The movement of Azerbaijani servicemen in our territories is completely legal. The Armenian armed forces are restoring fortifications and building a defensive wall on Azerbaijani soil. These actions contradict the November 10 tripartite ceasefire statement. If this continues, it could lead to a new military conflict. The sovereign rights of Azerbaijan in Karabakh must be fully guaranteed. The alternative is a new war. Although Azerbaijan is dissatisfied with the peacekeeping activities of Russia, it does not take any effective steps towards Russia. Azerbaijan to the greatest extent complies with the Declaration of November 10. The road through Lachin is controlled by the Russian military. On this issue, official Baku fully complies with the terms of the Declaration.

Question: There was a report that the Azerbaijani soldier Jamil Babayev was detained in the city of Agdera, which is under the control of Russian peacekeepers. The structure, which introduced itself as the National Security Service of the separatist regime, reported: "On August 25, Azerbaijani serviceman Jamil Babayev was found and arrested in an apartment on Teryan Street in Agdera." Now everyone is asking the question - why was the Azerbaijani soldier arrested on his territory?

Answer: The circumstances and the reason for the penetration of the Azerbaijani serviceman into the territory of Azerbaijan, where the Russian peacekeepers are temporarily stationed, should be investigated by the special services. Did the Turkish-Russian Monitoring Center observe how this soldier infiltrated the area? After all, these territories are under round-the-clock supervision of the Joint Monitoring Center. First of all, it is necessary to clarify these issues.

It is possible that the soldier ended up in this area as a result of the purposeful actions of Russian peacekeepers or special services. The Russian military could immediately report this to the Azerbaijani side and return the soldier. But a different approach aimed at creating tension was chosen. Obviously, this is a pre-planned provocation with the aim of officially presenting Azerbaijan with a fact.

The nature of the information disseminated gives reason to think so. Its purpose is to show the existence of a separatist regime in Karabakh with its own laws and institutions, to draw attention to the fact that security is provided by some specialized structure, to force reckoning with it, and also to downplay the significance of the statements of the President of Azerbaijan.

The occupied part of Karabakh is still under Russian control. Russia is interested in this performance. With the help of the puppet regime, he humiliates Azerbaijan and wants to demonstrate the insignificance of his military victory. At the same time, there is an intention to discredit the government and the armed forces of Azerbaijan.

Question: It looks like there will be quite a few such provocations. What can be done to avoid them?

Answer: Russia came to Karabakh on November 10 to prevent the complete defeat of Armenia and the complete victory of Azerbaijan. He continues this activity now. Azerbaijan should closely cooperate with all international forces seeking to weaken Russia's influence in the region. At the same time, no matter how difficult it is, it is necessary to expand bilateral relations with Armenia. At present, the so-called regime in Karabakh is actually Russia itself. We must be prepared for its most incredible provocations.

Kamran Mahmudov