Поддерживаемые Турцией сирийские повстанцы готовятся отразить наступление войск Асада в Идлибе

Поддерживаемые Турцией сирийские повстанцы готовятся отразить наступление войск Асада в Идлибе

Turan: After the meeting of the heads of state in Sochi on August 5, the Russian press once again emphasized the "vital importance of Erdoğan for Russia" and characterized Turkey as "the door that opens to the world for Russia". Do you think that these evaluations of the Russian side are for the sake of reflecting the reality or a new stage of the policy of “incitement” in recent years?

Yakış: In particular, after the start of the conflict in Ukraine, it is necessary to accept that the relations between Turkey and Russia have entered an important turning point. Turkey, which is at the same distance from Russia and Ukraine, is taking advantage of an opportunity that has never been taken until the recent past, and at the stage we have reached, it has succeeded in continuing this difficult but balanced policy.

In reality, planes from Russia to the world mostly fly from the skies of Turkey. In this sense, Turkey, which does not participate in the embargoes imposed by NATO on Russia, follows a different policy from the countries that are members of the Alliance. This policy also has its risks. However, Turkey has been able to implement this policy without any “road accidents”. We hope it will manage to continue this after that.

Putin's words about the importance of Turkey should be taken sincerely. Of course, sometimes things can be one way and sometimes another way in international financial relations. It should not be surprising. Today's conditions have created a favorable atmosphere for the development of relations between Turkey and Russia. We cannot predict how it will be in the future. However, if we can continue the relations for a long time in accordance with the interests of both countries, we will count it as a profit.

Turan: Will Russia allow Turkey to conduct a new military operation in Syria?

Yakış: Russia opposes Turkey's new military operation in Syria. It stated this openly both at the summit meeting in Tehran and in Sochi and recommended that Turkey establish relations with the official Syrian circles. However, dear Erdoğan reiterated his determination to carry out this military operation so insistently that it became difficult for him to take a step back after that. Especially, at a time when Turkey is entering the election phase, there are difficult aspects for the President to step back from this decision. Therefore, two possibilities come to mind:

First, a formal operation can be organized on the other side of the border to show that Turkey has not given up on its decision. And secondly, not a formal, but a serious military operation can be conducted. In such a case, both Mr. Erdoğan and Mr. Putin will have to accept the consequences of their policies.

Turan: The issue of clearing Idlib from terrorists was again on the agenda. Will the Turkish government continue the policy of “dodging the column” in this matter, or has a new phase started after August 5?

Yakış: Russia will prefer to destroy jihadist groups, including Chechen terrorists, in Idlib. Because if the Chechen terrorists manage to escape from Idlib in one way or another, they can return to Chechnya and start actions that will disturb Russia - this possibility remains strong. Therefore, the task of clearing the terrorists in Idlib has become a double-edged sword for Turkey.

Turan: Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Chechnya, who went to Sochi, announced on his Telegram channel that despite not attending the meeting of the heads of state, he met with the Director of the Turkish National Intelligence Organization and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, showing a positive intention for the development of relations between Turkey and Chechnya. How to interpret this?

Yakış: If Erdoğan and Putin will make a joint decision regarding the destruction of Chechen terrorists in one way or another, they can find a method to implement it. The critical issue here is whether Mr. Erdoğan will risk the destruction of the Chechens. Time will tell.

 

Mayis Alizadeh and Yashar Yakysh

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