“The goal of terror is Putin's policy”

On March 22, a terrorist attack took place in the Crocus City Hall concert hall in Moscow, the capital of Russia. As of March 26, the death toll as a result of the terrorist attack reached 139 people, 182 were injured of varying severity. The Investigative Committee has opened a criminal case under Article 205 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation (terrorism).

On March 25, the Basmanny District Court of Moscow issued a decision on the election of preventive measures in the form of detention for 2 months against suspects in the terrorist attack Dalerjon Mirzoev, Muhammadsobir Fayzov, Saidakrami Rachabalizod, and Shamsid Fariduni.

Who is behind this incident?

Security expert Ilham Ismail answers questions from ASTNa on this topic.

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Question: What is your version of the terrorist attack that took place in Russia?

Answer: Terror is a means of pressure. When a specific policy pursued by the state is not perceived, terror is used as a pressure tool to force the abandonment of this policy. Since Russia's policy towards Ukraine, NATO, and the post-Soviet space is not perceived by most countries of the world, and diplomatic measures of influence are running out, terrorism comes into play as a hybrid pressure.  And although terrorist organizations function as the perpetrator, it is possible that large forces may be behind them. It is difficult to say exactly what force it is, and probably the exact information will never be disclosed.

Question: Many organizations are suspected of committing terror. Especially the "Islamic State" (IS – formerly the "Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant" (ISIL – Ed.). Could it be ISIS?

Answer: As already mentioned, the terrorist organization in this case is a proxy force. There is no specific process that could create a conflict between ISIS and Russia. There is no aggressive policy towards Muslims in Russia, and the Islamic world has always been sympathetic to authoritarian, totalitarian regimes, including Putin's Russia. IS is the perpetrator of the terrorist attack in the "Crocus" of ISIS, and not the bearer of the claim. 

Question: The detention of persons accused of committing terrorism on the border with Ukraine provokes Ukraine's involvement in this issue. Could Ukraine or any of the Western countries have had a hand in this?

Answer: First of all, we have witnessed the unprofessional loss of terrorists. It is felt that those who promised that conditions would be created for them to leave Russia, although they indicated a specific direction, did not keep their promises. The settlement of the Bryansk region, where terrorist suspects are being held, is located 43 kilometers from the border with Belarus and 114 kilometers from the border with Ukraine. At the same time, the Ukrainian border is strictly guarded on both sides, and it is almost impossible to cross it, let alone cross the territory of Belarus. The fact that Russian propaganda points to Ukraine is aimed at justifying Russia's conducting even more destructive and harsh military operations on the Ukrainian front in the near future.

Question: Some experts say that this may be the result of a struggle in the Russian government between the military and the FSB groups. How logical is this?

Answer: In any case, this terror is directed against Putin's policies. But, no matter how tense the relations between the authorities are, they will not take such a step, because it is not beneficial to any of them. Putin's image suffered the most here. Therefore, the assumption that the Russian security forces committed this intentionally is unconvincing.

Question: The terror was committed shortly after the presidential elections in Russia. We usually encounter some unpleasant surprises after elections in countries like Russia. Arrests, terror, war, and so on.  At the same time, the fact that terror was not prevented despite warnings from American intelligence, or the inability to prevent it, also reinforces these suspicions. Is it possible that the Russian authorities had a hand in this incident?

Answer: What advantages can this terror give to the Russian authorities? A pretext for a devastating attack on Ukraine? It could have been done without terror. This type of US intelligence warning usually manifested itself without much delay. Even former employees of the Russian special services noted in their comments that 50% of these warnings turn out to be reliable. However, Putin himself said that this warning was aimed at creating chaos in the run-up to the elections. It was this superficial approach that led to the emergence of terror. There is a factor of not taking the problem seriously here.

Question: Is the commission of terror at the facility owned by Azerbaijani billionaire Araz Agalarov a message to Azerbaijan?

Answer: I believe that the belonging of the object to Araz Agalarov has nothing to do with this terrorist attack, and no messages are intended for Azerbaijan. Despite the fact that people like Solovyov pour water on the mill of Armenians without any reason. This is a biased attitude and does not fit into any facts or logic.

Question: By the way, the State Security Service of Azerbaijan says that it has detained Bahruz Askerov, who was preparing to commit a terrorist attack.  It is reported that Azerbaijani citizen Bahruz Askerov, who lives in the Russian city of Murmansk, has been detained as a suspect. Is the threat of terrorism possible in Azerbaijan?

Answer: No state is immune from terrorism, including Azerbaijan. Although Bahruz Askerov lived in Murmansk, he was trying to fulfill Iran's mission. From the initial statement of the detainee, it became clear that the southern region was not chosen by chance, it was planned to commit a terrorist act in order to violate public security in the country, to cause fear and panic among the population. Iran also pursued the goal of strengthening separatist sentiments here. It is felt that Bahruz Askerov, an enemy of the Azerbaijani state, is a member of an organized group and, as he himself says, planned to take refuge with the Armenian lobby in Lebanon after the terror.

Question: What should be the security measures to avoid terrorism?

Answer: In order to know where the danger comes from, it is necessary to strictly control the current operational situation, seek sources for information in advance, and prevent terrorism and other provocations.  In this work, comprehensive operational measures are conducted and information is obtained about where the danger comes from.