When will the military operation in Karabakh be conducted?

The expected military operation of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces against illegal armed formations in Karabakh is one of the most discussed topics of recent weeks. Azerbaijan has repeatedly stated at the highest level that it does not intend to tolerate the presence of the so-called Karabakh Defense Army, which the Armenian side refuses to withdraw from the region.

In turn, the separatist leaders unequivocally declare that they do not intend to fulfill one of the points of the trilateral statement of November 10, 2020 on the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces from Karabakh. Thus, conducting a military operation to disarm the separatists is a matter of time.

Military experts, analyzing the parameters of the upcoming operation on the map, note the most logical options for it. First of all, the most fortified and stuffed one stands out armament of the former Mardakert  region (Agdere). The main bases of the separatists, military units and weapons are concentrated here. A significant part of heavy equipment is located on the territory of two mines: Gyzylbulag (Drmbon) and Demirli (Kashen). The mountainous terrain and dense forests of this area make it possible to hide significant military forces. During the Second Karabakh War, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces managed to liberate a minimal part of this area due to considerable losses. However, in the subsequent period, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces conducted a number of operations, occupying the dominant heights and taking control of a significant territory of the region.

The strategic importance of Agdere is explained by the presence of a direct road from Terter to Kelbajar, as well as the largest water reservoir of Karabakh - the Sarsang reservoir and the hydroelectric power station of the same name. If Agdere is more fortified, then the weakest point of the separatists is the former Martuni region (Khojavend), surrounded on three sides. The weakest point is a narrow section of 4-5 km, where there is a road connecting this area with Khankendi.

The simultaneous offensive of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces from the city of Shusha and from the village of Abdal Gulabli cuts this road, and the whole area will be surrounded. At the same time, the nearby city of Khankendi will be under direct attack. By separating this area from the rest of Karabakh, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces will disarm the Armenian forces, which are doomed. After that, the Askeran region will be under attack, where the strategic height of Farrukh is already under the control of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces, which makes it possible to launch an offensive on Askeran itself, to cut the road from Agdere to Khankendi near the village of Syrkhavend. At the same time, it will be possible to reach Khojaly.

It is quite possible that such operations will take place simultaneously, which will deprive the separatists of the opportunity to help each other and organize real resistance.

According to open sources, the total number of Armenian forces in Karabakh varies from 5 to 10 thousand people, plus several thousand reservists. In the event of a new war, the entire combat-ready male population should be drafted into the army, and this is several thousand more. If you consider,

As there are currently no more than 40-45 thousand people living in Karabakh, Armenians can put 15-20 thousand people under arms. As for weapons, these are up to 150 units of tanks and combat vehicles -  IFVs (Infantry Fighting Vehicle) and  APCs (Armored Personnel Carrier.)

Artillery in the form of D30 howitzers, anti-aircraft guns and anti-tank weapons. There are several units of multiple launch rocket systems "Grad" and possibly "Tornado", but there is a shortage of missiles for them.

The Armenian military equipment was seriously damaged during the Second Karabakh War, and part of it was withdrawn to Armenia under the terms of the trilateral statement of November 10, 2020. Therefore, today the combat capability of the Karabakh army is assessed quite low, given the blockade of the region, the lack of fuel for equipment and the general demoralization of the army and the population. Finally, the Karabakh people should not count on Armenia's help.

In turn, over the past almost three years after the Second Karabakh War, Azerbaijan has seriously strengthened the military infrastructure in the liberated areas around Karabakh. Several military bases, military units, airfields have been created. Of particular note is the deployment of special forces around Karabakh, whose number has been increased at least twice since the war.

The means of technical and electronic intelligence allow us to keep the Armenian side under full control. According to military experts, in the event of a new war, Karabakh will not last more than two weeks. Nevertheless, human losses for Azerbaijan will be inevitable, not to mention the Armenians.

The probability of third-party intervention in the situation is low. Russian peacekeepers are few in number and physically unable to restrain several thousand special-purpose forces of Azerbaijan. In addition, the peacekeepers have long understood that they are acting as extras, and all issues are resolved behind closed doors between Baku and Moscow.

As for the West, it has no physical means to prevent or restrain Azerbaijan. The biggest cost for Baku will be international criticism and possibly some sanctions. If we recall the last speech of Ilham Aliyev in Shusha, there is no doubt that Baku is mentally and physically ready to put an end to the Karabakh conflict. At the same time, the Karabakh Armenians, by their radical and categorical actions, provoke the Azerbaijani side and give rise to an operation to disarm them.

In this situation, only one question remains unanswered - When?

Judging by the way events are developing, it is not long to wait.